Caution battery technology

There's some very exciting new battery technology coming to a device near you soon.  Check out some of my battery posts for details of these replacements for the current generation lithium ion batteries we use in our smartphones and laptops.

Surely, this is just a win-win situation, isn't it?  What could be the downside of improved batteries?

Toxic dumping

If this new technology is as sensationally good as it's touted to be, surely everyone is going to be dumping their existing batteries as quickly as they can.  Regardless of whether this rejection of the old technology happens rapidly, there is going to be a big increase in the number of old batteries that need to be recycled.  Recycling of batteries is, at best, a hit-and-miss affair.  Will the recyclers be able to cope with the volume?  Will people continue be as lax as they are now and simply toss these toxic timebombs into the landfill?

Accelerated obsolescence

These new batteries will most likely work on similar voltages as existing rechargeables but will they be directly compatible with the devices we have today?  Batteries come in all shapes and sizes and it seems that every phone or laptop has a different replacement model of battery to the next.

Will it quickly become impossible to get a replacement old-tech battery to keep your otherwise perfectly serviceable laptop running for another year?  Is a lack of spare parts going to make consumer devices obsolete before their time?

Protected designs

Much of this new technology is already protected by patents and trademarks.  The processes used to manufacture the electrodes is also protected so only licensed parties will be able to make this stuff.  What happens to all the traditional battery manufacturers around the world who are not part of this exclusive club?  Battery manufacturers are often located in the developing world.  If the plants are no longer able to make the products that the western nations want, what happens to the factories and the communities that depend on them?

Reduced replacement needs

Consumer devices have a limited lifespan, we all know that.  Generally people start looking to replace their gadgets as they become unreliable.  Currently one of the biggest causes of reduced reliability is when the battery fails to hold enough charge and the owner is forever having to plug it in.  This is often the point at which they make the decision to chuck it out and buy something new.

Manufacturers rely on short replacement cycles for their sales.  Sure, they want new customers but they need  returning customers, too.

This next generation of battery has around 10 times the lifespan of your current rechargeable so guess what, the battery is not going to be the first thing to fail on your consumer device.  So given that the weakest part of your portable device has been the battery up until now, how long can you expect that device to last?  Longer than the 18 months you might get out of it at the moment, that's for sure.  Will you necessarily be looking to replace it quite so often or will you make it last another 6 - 12 months?

If the world market starts adding that kind of additional time between product replacement cycles, then the manufacturers are going to be selling a lot less product.

Caution 3D Printing

One technology trend that's garnering a lot of attention is additive manufacturing, or as we know it, 3D printing.  The technology promises so much - build anything that you can create a blueprint for.  It's going to be huge for industry and for the home user alike.

So many good points but what about the downside?

Let me know what you think about my words of caution.

Attention: new technology ahead

The hardware needed for 3D printing is early generation, sometime prototype level.  For any company investing in these machines there's a definite risk that the printers will quickly be superceded by faster, more powerful, more versatile models.  It would be fair to say that 3D printing on a commercial scale is not there yet.

Similarly for the domestic consumer, the models that you may want to spend your money on are simply way too s-l-o-w for anything more than a hobbyist at this stage.

Buy this hardware now and the chances are you will be looking to re-invest in the not too distant future.

Guns, drugs and bad behaviour

Unlike most of the other technology trends that are portrayed in a good light, 3D printing has been villified by politicians because it takes away their control of what happens within their borders.  There are big concerns that we will see the unlicensed, uncontrolled manufacture of weapons, ammunition and other harbingers of death.

Physical borders have always acted as the last defence to keep out unwelcome imports but when the ability to manufacture that restricted product from a blueprint that came down an internet connection, what hope is there for any kind of control?

The ability to print drugs (given the right ingredients) also sounds warning bells for border control.

Humans are surplus to requirements

Additive manufacturing may become so widespread that the entire fabrication process for virtually any product will be handled exclusively by industrial robots.

If the industrialists of the world invest in the machines over people, what is there left for humans to do in this traditionally labour-intensive industry?

What will happen to the traditional assembly line worker?  What need is there for the component suppliers when the one factory can make all of the parts themselves.  Why would we need the service industries that feed the factories?

Developing nations are hard hit 

So much of the world's manufacturing has already shifted to the places where human labour is cheap - South-east Asia and South America.

If you no longer need huge numbers of people to work for peanuts but instead need a battery of high tech robots to replace them, what happens to all of those disenfranchised people?  How do they find a living? 

Idle hands

My biggest concern with the potential shift in manufacturing processes is the human toll of lost work. It will hit every nation on earth, some harder than others.  It has the potential, if left unchecked, to make people surplus to requirements in the manufacturing world. 

We are already seeing the fall-out from mass unemployment in the bankrupt European Community states.  Civil unrest, riots, crime, lives ruined.

Scale this up to a world where manufacturing has dispensed with human involvement and there are countless numbers of angry and hungry people.  They no longer buy anything because they have no money, they no longer pay taxes because they are not earning.

Where will governments source their funds when the tax system has collapsed?

These are big questions for our leaders and for ourselves.   What will we do to address them and will we do it in time?

Beware radical elements

Revolutionary new materials like graphene can only be good for our future,can't they?  Well, certainly a lot of people are very excited about the positive side of stronger, lighter, more flexible, water repelling materials but  can this be all good?

I'm not one to pour water on a great idea but I do wonder about the ramifications of the large scale introduction of such radically different materials.

Invincibility

Indestructible materials are all very well, until you come to the point where you do want to break them down.   How do you recycle or destroy a product that has been made so strong and impervious to damage?  Will this create a mountain of waste for which there is no disposal other than burial?

Undetectable hostility

Technology that is tiny, light and virtually undetectable is great if you are the one in charge of its deployment. But what happens when a foreign power or a criminal organisation with nefarious intent gets hold of that same technology.  How do you defend your borders against such a threat?

Loss of traditional ways

The construction, manufacturing and the textile industries employ countless millions of people worldwide.   They rely on suppliers and growers to provide the material that they need to make their products.  What happens when those traditional materials are replaced by these new radical materials?  Potentially there is massive impact to the way that whole communities make their living.

Consider the cotton growers who supply the world's textile industry.  If these new textile materials prove to be superior to natural products, the vast cotton fields of the world will be redundant.  That would destroy the livelihood of countless individuals, communities, even nations that depend on the industry.

No built-in obsolescence

Nothing lasts forever, so the saying goes.  However, some of these new materials are so impervious to damage and decay that they may well last substantially longer than a human lifespan.   What could that mean for the economies of the world?  When things stop wearing out what happens to the industries that bank on feeding the need for replacement goods?  What do all the people who make those replacements do now to make a living?

These are big questions for our leaders and for ourselves.   What will we do to address them and will we do them in time?