Thermonuclear experiments

Masthead from the International Thermonuclear Energy Reactor (ITER) project website

In an experimental plant in southern France scientists are researching the ultimate energy source.  They are trying to prove the nuclear fusion can be harnessed to provide an infinite amount of power for the world.

This is ITER - the International Thermonuclear Energy Reactor project.  Their goal is to produce a nuclear reactor that produces at least 10 times more power than it consumes to prove that this type of energy production is a viable commercial proposition.  Ideally they want to push this differential out to 50 times.   Can you imagine that?  I can't.  The idea that you get more energy back than you put in is hard to grasp.

People don't like nuclear reactions.  They immediately start thinking Chernobyl or Fukushima or . . . .  or what? What other nuclear accidents can you think of?  These two stand out because they were firstly very rare blots on the industry's safety record but also so truly awful and let's face, with better oversight, completely avoidable.  The nuclear industry is its own worst enemy when it fails to police itself properly.

So, in an atmosphere of great mistrust and moves against nuclear power, why is ITER pushing ahead?

Well, ITER is not interested in creating new fission reactors that burn radioactive uranium and all the problems that that brings.  They are looking to produce nuclear fusion where two hydrogen atoms fuse together to create a single helium atom.  They are looking to copy what our greatest star has been doing continually for millions of years at temperatures of 15 millions degrees Celsius.

H-bomb testing in the 1950s

It's not like we don't know how to bring about nuclear fusion.  In the 1950s our testing of hydrogen bombs did that but as we know the output of the energy from a bomb is not the kind of controllable release we want for power generation.

There have been fusion experiments before.  One of the biggest scientific hoaxes of modern times came in 1989 when  two american scientists, Pons and Fleischmann, claimed that they had achieved cold fusion in a test tube but were never able to demonstrate it to the assembled scientific community.

The ITER project  is no backroom science experiment.  This is a truly international project that  will consume billions of dollars of investment.

The reactor is housed in a tokamak - a giant container that uses magnetic fields to hold a plasma (a cloud of ionised gas) at 150 million degrees Celsius (yes, 10 times the temperature of the sun's fusion).  ITER's process uses deuterium, a naturally occurring form of hydrogen with one neutron in the nucleus, together with tritium (which has 2 neutrons).  The deuterium and tritium atoms fuse to form a helium atom.  This apparently is the most efficient known fusion reaction we can achieve.

Nuclear fusion using deuterium and tritium fusing to form helium

The energy from the fusion reaction is absorbed by the walls of the tokamak then used to heat water to create steam that turns a turbine to generate electricity.

These guys are serious about their mission.  Their website says it all -  "In our opinion, the use of fusion energy is a "must" if we want to be serious about embarking on a sustainable development for future generations".

The very best of luck to them.

More on the International Thermonuclear Energy Reactor project

The International Thermonuclear Energy Reactor project

How does a fusion reactor work? (HowStuffWorks)

ITER project (The Independent UK)

Russian firm Rosatom is building ITER plant (Telegraph UK)

Lighting our world

LEDs are available for traditional socket fittings

Is LED the future of lighting?

Over the last 15 years we've seen a lot of changes in the way we light our homes and our cities.  Many territories have now outlawed the sale of incandescent bulbs, much to the chagrin of people who like these cheap and reliable light sources.  Instead they must now rely on the compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) or possibly they may splash out on LED.

The Compact Fluorescent Lamp (CFL)

  LEDs come in many colour options            

CFLs are a big improvement on incandescent bulbs in terms of longevity and power consumption.  They are, however, not universally popular for many reasons - their purchase price is higher than incandescent, they contain some nasty elements (like mercury) and the quality of the light does not match what people are used to.  CFL is very much mainstream now, so like it or not, they do sell in big numbers.  Just make sure that you buy the ones that operate at the right colour temperature for the situation.  (Most people who like the light from incandescent bulbs are used to a colour temperature of around just under 3000K from their CFL.)

The Light Emitting Diode (LED)

The newer kid on the block and one with a very bright (haha) future is the Light Emitting Diode or LED.  LEDs are used in all sorts of appliances.  They have found favour with the multimedia industry as a reliable and high performing back light for LCD televisions and computer monitors.  We see them used in torches and indicator lights on all kinds of appliances.  Why?  Well, they put out a terrific amount of light for their size, they consume only a small amount of power, the light quality is good and they last an awfully long time.

LED is also starting to appear as a technology that will light our homes, offices and streets.  Unfortunately,  there are a few hurdles that this technology must first overcome before it's truly ready for the mainstream.  Currently LED bulbs and LED tubes seem to be horrendously expensive.  Sure enough the purchase price is high alongside CFL but the expected lifetime is very good at around 50,000 hours.  The LED doesn't contain the nasty elements that plague CFL and the quality (if not the quantity) of light emitted is very palatable.  LED can be manufactured in many different colours so it is particularly well suited to fancy lighting solutions.

                  The light emitting diode (LED)                             

Researchers are also holding out high hopes for LED as an external lighting technology.  LED can be made highly directional, thus reducing light leakage - a major problem for street lighting, which tends to dazzle motorists and certainly destroys the hopes of any quality star-gazing in our cities.

Don't expect to be fitting out your homes with LED in the near future but bank on seeing their increased usage in  ornamental lighting situations and in commercial settings where their longevity makes them an economical option even with the currently high purchase costs.

Links to Lighting

Some LED lighting options from those clever IKEA people

LED lighting could improve city star-gazing (BBC)

Experimental LED lights from IKEA (Gizmodo)

Comparing CFL and LED

LED lighting     CFL facts

Innovative lighting for the future (Gizmodo)

Micro-battery breakthrough

I always get excited when I hear of improvements in battery technology.  We have so many great gadgets but  if they are to be portable then they need to be powered by a battery.

Batteries never give us the staying power we need and they have long been the Achilles Heel of portability.  Think about all of those smartphones, tablets and notebooks that don't last the distance.  You often need to find an AC socket to recharge your device at the most inopportune moment.

There are many projects trying to design the next generation of battery technology.  Here's one that shows
great promise.  The key appears to be in what they've done with the electrodes.  Traditionally the anode (positive) and cathode (negative) have poles that are solid.  Electrons flow through a barrier (the electrolyte) when a load (such as a bulb) is attached and hey presto, electricity.

3 dimensional electrodes are the key to the power gain

The radical change with this new technology is that the normally solid electrodes are swapped out for three dimensional micro-structures.  Increasing the effective surface area of the electrodes has a remarkable effect on the power density.  The batteries have around 2000 times more power generated than regular micro-batteries.  They also recharge around 1000 times faster, too.

At the moment they have some issues with the manufacturing process and some of the materials are too combustible to be safe but they have high hopes for sorting out these problems.  The improvements in the electrode structure and their effect on power gain will remain regardless of what materials they make these batteries out of.

The technology will allow for very powerful batteries that are much smaller than current ones or, alternatively, batteries of a similar size to today's units but many times more powerful.

I'll be watching this one with great anticipation.

Battery stories

Battery breakthrough (BBC)

Teeny tiny batteries (Cnet)

Boffins build high-power low-size battery (TheRegister)

If the title 'High-power lithium ion microbatteries from interdigitated three-dimensional bicontinuous nanoporous electrodes' doesn't phase you, then maybe you'd like to read the more detailed technical report about this technology.  (Warning: subscription service)

How does a battery work?

Robot Convoy

Driverless road trains are in develoopment

Here's a great story from the BBC - robotic truck convoys.

I love the idea of these driverless road train chugging through the night.  Kinda spooky - what if they develop a mind of their own? (Images of 'Christine' come to mind.)

Google Car is an active project and we know what

Drone convoy

those guys can do when they put their collective minds to something.

BMW has already forecast that vehicles will be "highly automated" by 2015 and driverless by 2020.  That's food for thought.

Many of the world's big auto manufacturers are spending large on this holy grail of vehicle technology.  There will potentially be big wins for the people who get it right and can license the technology to the world.
Nissan, Lexus, Audi are all in the mix, as are Oxford University.

Exciting times indeed but let's hope that they do a lot of testing before they deploy these.  Question is, what are all the people going to do who insist on driving to break the monotony of travel?

BMW forecast driverless cars by 2020 

Driverless cars by 2015 possible (Stuff)

Has the time come for the driverless car? (Washington Post)

Google's trillion dollar car (Forbes)

The world in 2020

I've just been watching the predictions for the world by 2020 - a fascinating slideshow posted on this World by 2020 presentation (YouTube)

What's in store for us by 2020?

Very interesting slideshow with a wide range of technology featured and social impacts based primarily on our failure to address environment concerns (extinction of animals in Africa, humanitarian crisis in southern Asia, etc).

2020 is slightly earlier than my 10 year range of 2023 but it certainly filled me with hope that I'm are on the right track.

In the video I saw a number of medical advances - cures for disease, use of nanobots entering the operation arena.

They also featured a probe that would enter the sun's atmosphere - did I understand that bit correctly?  If this is going to happen we are going to need some radical new materials that can withstand unbelievable levels of heat (not to mention the ability to travel 90 million miles - when will it need to leave earth?)

There were predictions on a number of tech fronts - sending messages by thinking (careful what you think !!), textiles that use processes from nanotechnology.

I think the connected user figure was 5 billion but I'll need to replay to check that.  Clearly that's a huge number but according to the world population forecasts we'll have 8 billion people on the planet so that's only just over 60%.

Anyway, I'm going to watch this one again, plus a few others as I think these provide good validators for my current thinking.  It's certainly no simple matter being a future gazer, even with all this excellent help from fellow futurists.

Predictions for 2030

Take a look at this prediction for what the world may look like by 2030.

A high technology decade

From Top 10 to Top 5

I'm currently working through some thought processes for what will be the 'game changer' trends and technologies over the next 10 years.  I started out with a list of 10 and I'm now condensing that to just 5.

It's a sorting and prioritising process that is gradually coming together.  I've gathered together an evolving list that I'll share with you now.  Take a look and give me some feedback in the comments for this post.  I really welcome your thoughts.

The next 10 years is an exciting and challenging time.  Here's how I see it in 5 key areas . . . .

Internet evolution

The web grows bigger

• The internet continues to expand at a staggering rate.
• Access to all things online improves as interfaces become far more intuitive and current barriers to access dissolve as clunky devices like keyboards are replaced by gesture, eye movement/scanning, voice biometrics
• Storage capability increases at a phenomenal rate as the need for mobility (always available on all my devices) and greatly increased data needs mean that the ‘cloud’ is the sensible place to keep it all
• Bandwidth expands commensurate with the data needs and the vastly increased number of online users
• Privacy and security, already a major concern, become an absolute necessity due to people’s dependence on the internet for so many services and storage of their most personal details.
• Corporates migrate to the ‘cloud’ as security of data access is beefed up

All things ‘nano’ and their applications 

The future is nano

• Nanotechnology become a huge industry with exploration in all aspects of science
• Big business and state funds invest heavily in research and development
• A big winner in this new world is health and medical science as the ability to manipulate cell structure, genetic material allows cures to major illness and disease and the re-growth of lost/damaged organs/limbs
• Radical materials are developed to address the shortcoming of current deficient materials
• New materials are virtually indestructible, withstand tremendous pressure and temperature difference, are malleable, ductile, flexible – whatever property is needed 
• Materials developed from molecular manipulation (i.e. nano-tech) provide new building materials, textiles, fluids – anything you can imagine
• Nano-developed materials are used in fabricating products from the tangible printing sector – basically you can ‘print’ anything that you need (via the right design blueprint) and you can ensure that it has the right properties (flexible, rigid, indestructible, etc.) by using the right building material.

Global community / social networks

The web has created a global tribe          

• Continuing on from  the infrastructure provided by the expanded internet, the growth of social networks continues unabated
• Virtually everyone who joins the online world becomes involved in one or more of these networks
• Big business utilises these frameworks to mine information
• Due to so much commerce moving online and harnessing these social networks, it becomes almost impossible for individuals to avoid participating
• Individual privacy reduces as you need to open up more aspects of your life to participate
• Security increases due to so much dependence on the net for commerce

Solar power

Energy

• Fossil fuels continue to deplete, become more expensive, ecologically unsustainable and non-competitive against renewable sources
• Big business and state invest in developing renewable energy as a power source
• Economies of scale and R&D mean that solar power becomes a major player across the globe
• Solar power is used domestically as well as for large scale electricity production

Artificial Intelligence

Machines that think like humans are coming

• Robots become more agile and able to negotiate rough terrain
• Application to military uses increases – robotic aircraft become an important weapon
• Manufacturing robots develop to fabricate whole products rather than just components – close alignment here with the tangible printing theme
• R&D projects like IBM’s Blue Brain successfully allow artificial intelligence to be developed to emulate certain key human brain functions
• Robots develop brains that allow them to apply logic and make decisions

I've been thinking

Separate technologies or strands of something bigger?

Recently I constructed a top 10 list of predictions for the next 10 years - a pretty tall order for a novice like

Rodin's The Thinker

me but it was both fun and challenging to do this piece of future-gazing.  Having identified a short list of 10 trends and technologies I will now attempt to whittle that list down to just 5.

In order to do that I'm going to have to eliminate some  (which seems pretty harsh) or maybe I should try something else.

As I've ruminated on my list of trends I've noticed something very interesting.  There are so many strands of each that intersect with other trends on my list.  I guess it's hardly surprising that these technologies are not operating in isolation of each other.  That makes a lot of sense really - unless something is truly restricted and set apart from the rest of the world order, how could it not have some synergies or relationships with other trends?

Having recovered from this 'eureka' moment I feel energised to start this task of rationalisation.  What will be on my Top 5 list is yet to be decided but I feel confident that at least some of those 5 trends and technologies will contain strands from others on my original Top 10 list.

It's going to be an interesting journey.

Aerographite

This Aerographite sounds like a wonderful new material with a  very promising future.  Let's consider some of it's properties.

• It's incredibly light - the lightest material  yet at just 0.2 mg per cc.
• It is highly resilient - crushing it by up to 95 per cent does not damage it at all.  In fact the action of pulling it back into shape may actually strengthen it.
• It's conductive and could be used as a battery.
• It's also super-hydrophobic, meaning that it will repel all moisture. 

Aerographite

Wow, a material that could be turned into a battery, is incredibly light, absolutely waterproof and can be subjected to high crushing pressure but remain undamaged?  Now, that has got to be worth investigating further.  Aerographite seems to address three of the major issues with current battery technology.  Batteries are easily damaged by knocks, they don't work well with water and they are usually very heavy.

Although the article doesn't give many clues about power capacities it does state that Aerographite may be useful for powering electric vehicles in the future.  That sounds like it must have good power delivery and duration since vehicles demand both.  Given that the batteries in conventional electrical vehicles are the heaviest components, this material could radically change the power to weight ratio required for propulsion.  Theoretically, a vehicle that used Aerographite batteries would be substantially lighter and could afford to sacrifice a percentage of its power yet still achieve the same or better performance.

There are countless other devices that are impacted by the weight of their batteries.  Assuming that the material is suitable for use in consumer gadgets like smartphones and video cameras.  Could such a technology perform the same function as an existing nickel metal hydride.   Replacing a set of heavy AA, C or D size batteries with a material that's lighter than air - now that has massive potential.

I'll be watching this one very carefully indeed.

Aerographite at Wikipedia

Extremetech article about Aerographite

More on Aerographite (Geekosystem)

Next10 Ten for Ten

Next10: 10 technologies for the next 10 years

I love to read, I listen and I absorb yet at best I'm a novice.  I can't predict the future but I can see important work going on all around me.

I have packaged together 10 technologies that I think will be game-changers for the next decade.  So please, consider my suggestions and tell me whether I'm on the right track or missing the wicket by a mile.

Click each of the links to read more about my predictions for these technologies.

1. The internet

I've placed the the internet as my number 1 in my list because I'm am very confident that we will continue to see a year-on-year expansion of what is already in place.  Speeds will increase, the volume of users and devices will explode, and will need a whole lot more places to store it all.

People are going to move to the 'cloud' for storage and and applications, simply because it makes sense.  Portable devices, the interface of the future, don't want to be responsible for holding precious data so we will need a reliable, secure, easily accessible repository for all of this stuff - cloud storage is the answer.


2. Nanotechnology

This is such a game changer.  Nanotechnology has a big part to play in a number of my predictions.  It's going to make a massive impact in the materials we use, the medical advances that make our lives healthier and longer.  I have no qualms about placing this fundamental technology so high on my list.

3. The global community

We can already see the huge impact that connecting people together has had on how we use the internet.  Social media is just the start.  We will be need to be connected to others for our shopping, our continuing education, our career progress.

It will be hard to find a place on this planet that will not be enveloped in this global community explosion.  Time to get on board and find your rightful place !

4. Battery technology

After a lot of thought I've placed this one 4th because I believe we are heading for a new era in battery technology.

Batteries as a power source have always been the weak link.  They fail when you need them most, they weigh you down when you're on the move.  They're an ecological nightmare.

All that is changing and thanks to new technologies and space age materials batteries are about to  become a whole lot better.

5. Radical materials

This is truly exciting technology.  It's as exciting as a magic show and it's the leading edge of science - a roller coaster of invention.  There are fortunes to be made as these materials take their place as the basic building blocks of every new technology that will follow.  Be amazed !


6. The communication interface

So long a barrier to getting online, the basic interface is changing fast and it's making the online world accessible to everyone.

Forget the keyboard and the mouse.  The new world is all about intuitive commands - human voice, eye movement, hand gestures.

Our gateway to the online world is getting a whole lot more accessible for all.

7. Robotics

No, not the stuff of science fiction movies, but expect the next generation of robots to learn new skills, move more naturally and become indispensable for manufacturing everything we need in our brave new world.

8. Fabricating anything

We're starting to see the very early indications of what can be constructed through 3D printing.

This technology is in its infancy but be prepared for this technique to revolutionise the way we manufacture everything.

9. Solar power

Our sun- it's been there forever and it's the reason there is life on earth.  Finally, we are turning up the heat on solar power - a truly renewable energy resource.

10. Exploiting the oceans

We've only just begun to scratch the surface of what lies in our oceans.  An unimaginable treasure trove of precious resources.  Will our exploitation of the sea be measured and fair or will big business rape and pillage the depths?  Let's hope that we can all share in this bountiful resource.


So, there it is.  My top 10.  I welcome your comments.  Yes, really !!

From 10 to 5

Since building this list mid-March, I've rationalised my top 10 down to my top 5 game changers for the next 10 years.  Check them out here.

Travel like a speeding bullet

http://travel.msn.co.nz/asia/242427/tube-travel.slideshow

A future travel concept on MSN Asia suggests that we can revolutionise travel by shooting pods through tube tunnels at speeds of 6500 kph.  That's a lot faster than I can relate to.

I'm guessing that they're looking at very long distance travel to make this worthwhile and it certainly sounds exciting - if not a little daunting.

I'm curious to know how you catapult human beings to 6500 kph without certain pressures on the anatomy making you very uncomfortable (or maybe even dead?)

How do you slow these things down at the other end without serious damage to internal organs?

What's the 'jet lag' like when you arrive?  At least on a long haul flight you are adjusting to new time zones as you travel more sedately but at this kind of speed your internal body clock is going to be way out of kilter with the local time on arrival.

If these tubes are travelling at such speeds what are the g-forces like on acceleration, deceleration and even the shallowest of curves?

Is in-flight catering possible? Will my gin and tonic stay in the glass and will I end up wearing my in-flight meal?

I'm asking a bunch of questions that already skip over the logistical challenges of building these things.  Unless you want to fire a bunch of these 6 person tubes all to the same final destination in a serial queue, you will need multiple parallel channels.   These tube tunnels are going to need to go through mountains, across oceans, under cities and no doubt through elevated sections, too.  Given the trans-continental scale of such a transport system, where is the funding and the state buy-in to approve such a project going to come from?

Maybe I sound like a critic but I'm not.  This is hugely exciting but I'd just like to know whether my initial concerns stem from a lack of understanding on my part or some very real technical challenges.

Would love to hear your thoughts on this concept.

10 years on

Could you predict the next 50 years for technology innovation?  No, how about the next 10?

Only 10?

10 years is surely still a big ask, isn't it?

OK, we're a bit more realistic than when Star Trek hit our screen and we know that we're not going to reach warp speed any time soon.  Are we ever?

In the home 10 years we will have already lived through a communications revolution.  Unlike now where I'm sitting anchored at my desk in my dedicated study typing onto a keyboard and looking at fixed screen, I'm not going to be doing that.  I'll be talking to someone, anyone, anywhere in the world while I walk around, doing a hundred and one things (just like I curently do when I'm on the phone).

Unlike now though, cameras mounted throughout the building will automatically detect my presence (if I want to be on camera) and will allow me to move around freely.  Those images will be mixed and transmitted to my friends through a link that is so much faster and capable of such enhanced bandwidth that the images can be as high definition as required, no lag, no jerky movement, crystal clear audio and overlaid with any other text or images I want to send simultaneously.  I'm not restricted to a single feed either.  Every one of my family could be doing the same as me and we could still have the neighbours around to try unsuccessfully to eat up all that capacity.

We'll have video displays all over the house - on walls, on tables.  Displays so thin that they can be sited anywhere.  Displays that bend so you're no longer limited to flat surfaces.  Images projected onto any reflective surface will be commonplace.  Glasses that project the image before my eyes mean I can move anywhere I want without losing contact.

Voice command has replaced the need to type words and rhe haptic band on my wrist allows me to scroll an image with a simple natural movement.

Much of this technology is already here but it's expensive and takes a lot of installation.  In 10 years these will be mature, ubiquitous products that every developed nation has.

That's just the home communications - what else can we expect?

Interview with Future Me

"If your future self could be talking to you now, what would s/he have to tell you about the future?"

Future Me has a clear advantage over Present Me.  He has already seen things I haven't yet seen plus he knows everything I already know, too.  He also has the benefit of hindsight and he can see the mistakes I am yet to make, the opportunities I will either ignore or fail to exploit to their full potential.  He's in a pretty good position to dole out any amount of useful advice - if only he's prepared to share it.

I'm guessing you're feeling pretty smug, Future Me, looking at your fledgling self - are you full of pity for me or am I an OK guy?  Are you angry at me for moving in the wrong direction for what must be obvious to you from your time-warped position of knowledge?

Is Future Me telling Current Me that I should have embraced this technology and bypassed that one?  Hardly !  They're all just stepping stones to something better.  Future Me will not be hung up on a specific technology.  He will laugh at me for worrying whether I can operate devices that run iOS, Windows, Android.  Who cares what the programming environment is?  Future Me assures me that these devices all talk happily to each other through control processes that render the underlying operating system irrelevant to the user.

I'm pleased to see that Future Me confirms that the power of language is even more important where we're headed.  Not the formal, academic English of yesteryear but the ability to be understood, without ambiguity in just a few words.  There's no time to compose long tomes - immediacy is key but the skill that will make my voice heard above the billions of other communicators is the use of succinct, inciteful, honest, no nonsense words, laced with humour and compassion.

I'll be communicating with so many more people every day than I currently do and I'll have a lot less 'alone time'.  Escaping to a quiet place will be far more challenging.  Why would I want to hide out anyway?

What does the future hold?

Future Me has great news for me about the technology interface.  In fact Future Me won't need baffling words like "interface" because using technology will require little or no help for me to harness it.  I will be surrounded by complex technology but interacting with it will be far less complicated than it currently is.  I won't need a training course or a user guide to show me how to operate it.  It will be intuitive - it will understand my voice and will respond to my touch.  I won't need to think how the technology worked - I'll just expect that it will behave predictably.  It won't frustrate me but instead will guide me forward.  I will welcome the opportunity to use it rather than worry that it might fail me.

Future Me will be amused that I'm hung up on trying to predict which gadget will succeed and which will die because they failed to adapt to the changing world.  He tells me that I should, even in 2013, be well aware that all devices have a limited shelf life and are constantly evolving into something faster, smarter, cheaper.  I should already know that display devices, communication tools, are throwaway consumables and that aspect will not change.  If I think today's devices are smart I have some wonderful surprises ahead and I will be stunned by my own naivety.

The greatest message of hope that Future Me will have for Current Me is that quality of life through better health is just around the corner - there is unbelievable advance in prevention and cure coming in every aspect of medicine.  Today's blunt, invasive and dangerous surgery looks positively barbaric alongside the micro- and nano-surgery techniques that are already taking their early steps around me now.  Those diseases that have killed or crippled people we know are mostly treatable or preventable in the not too distant future.  If only they had been available in my current time, how different life would be for our family.  Future Me can see what is possible whereas I can only hope that the cure for those life threatening ailments is nearly here.

I think that my meeting with Future Me has left me exhausted but happy.  There's a bright world ahead and Future Me is not going to spoil the surprise by giving me all the details.  But hang in there, accept that nothing stands still, hone those social skills and embrace every opportunity to interact with your fellow man.