A carbon future

How game changing is this material?

We all know what kind of impact silicon has had on the computer industry. In fact it's fair to say that we wouldn't have the information technology world of today if some bright spark hadn't worked out how to use this cheap and cheerful material to form the basis of all modern computer chips.  You could rightly say that silicon ushered in a technology revolution.  No exaggeration - a revolution.

So what would your reaction be if you were told that we are now poised on the edge of something that is bigger than the silicon age?  Something so game-changing that the world is only just beginning to wake up to what could be done with this new material.

What is it?  Well, I said it was new but it isn't.  What is new is our ability to manufacture it.  Would you believe that it was discovered by accident by a couple of UK-based Russian scientists.  Their discovery and subsequent research earned them the Nobel prize for Physics in 2010.

OK, enough teasing.  What are we talking about here?  Drum-roll, please - we're talking carbon, well specifically graphite and more specifically a single layer of graphite that is one atom thick - 2 dimensional graphite or, as the scientific world knows it, graphene.

It may be hard to appreciate what graphene is.  After all, at an atom thick you can't see it.  You would need 3 million sheets of graphene to reach the thickness of a pencil lead.  Even when it's deposited on a substrate, it's not very exciting because all you are seeing is the container material.  Graphene research is way too big to cover in a single post.  Check back here for a more detailed look at some of the possibilities for this totally awesome material.

Graphene promo videos on YouTube

Too small to call

Nanomedicine

Source: Scientific American (2009)

If you had a wall in your home that was scraped and dented and full of pin holes what would you do?  You could spend an eternity repairing it hole by hole, dent by dent, filling each imperfection until it was like new again.  On the other hand you could rip down the wall and replace it with a brand new piece of gib. Voila, sorted.

Apply that same analogy to a human body, afflicted with cancerous cells that bind to healthy tissue and choke it like a noxious weed.  What are you going to do now?  Sure, you can cut out the bits you can see, you can swamp the blood stream with a cocktail of chemical poisons that kill the cancer but destroy the immune system in the process.  Or you can blast the affected areas with radiation, causing sometimes dreadful nausea, fatigue and damage to surrounding areas.

None of this is in the least bit satisfactory but it’s the best we can do to save someone’s life – at least it was the best until the brave new dawn of nanotechnology and medicine, or nanomedicine.  Early days yet but research is showing that nanoparticles can deliver minute quantity of drugs, heat or light to each and every cell that needs it, leaving all surrounding cells alone.  No brute force required.

Carbon nanotubes

Nanotechnology is the new frontier where science meets medicine at the molecular level.  Nanomedicine, like all branches of nanotechnology has set the world of innovation alight.  So far we can only glimpse the myriad possibilities where this may go but already we are experiencing significant investment in research and development and an avalanche of applications to protect intellectual property.  There will be huge sums to be made out licensing the techniques to others who can combine the processes into something that will deliver an actual usable product.

Take a crash course in what nanomedicine can offer mankind and prepare to be amazed.

How small is nano sized?

Struggling to get a handle on nano dimensions? Take a look at the graphic below.  A pin head is about 1 million nanometres across.  A red blood cell is 2,500 on the same scale and that's small.  So consider the dimensions of a carbon nanotube - just 2 nanometres.  If you were hoping to see this marvel in action you're going to need something a bit more powerful than that old school microscope.

Source: HowStuffWorks

Some introductory information about nanomedicine

Boston University presentation - Introduction to nanomedicine

Nanomedicine Journal

Nanomedicine - Small particles, big concerns

Mind control

Imagine that you could operate machinery, turn on lights, close the curtains, change the TV channel or adjust the volume, just by thinking about it.

Wouldn't that be fun, crazy, spooky?

Well, maybe it's time to work out what your reaction would be to having such control because it's not far away from becoming a reality.

Mind control with the Emotiv headset

There are some very clever people out there who understand a lot about interpreting the electrical impulses produced by your brain.  Using some very complex algorithms they also learned how to apply this, despite the fact that everyone brain is different.   Your brain is folded into a unique pattern.  This was a major challenge to solving how to callibrate a machine that could detect electrical impulses effectively regardless of your cerebral layout.

Watch this amazing TED demonstration, hosted by entrepreneur Tan Le demonstrating an amazing and surprisingly cheap headset from Emotiv.

TED is an excellent technology resource

It's great to see such an eloquent and straightforward speaker
explaining something that is certainly beyond my comprehension.

A high technology decade

From Top 10 to Top 5

I'm currently working through some thought processes for what will be the 'game changer' trends and technologies over the next 10 years.  I started out with a list of 10 and I'm now condensing that to just 5.

It's a sorting and prioritising process that is gradually coming together.  I've gathered together an evolving list that I'll share with you now.  Take a look and give me some feedback in the comments for this post.  I really welcome your thoughts.

The next 10 years is an exciting and challenging time.  Here's how I see it in 5 key areas . . . .

Internet evolution

The web grows bigger

• The internet continues to expand at a staggering rate.
• Access to all things online improves as interfaces become far more intuitive and current barriers to access dissolve as clunky devices like keyboards are replaced by gesture, eye movement/scanning, voice biometrics
• Storage capability increases at a phenomenal rate as the need for mobility (always available on all my devices) and greatly increased data needs mean that the ‘cloud’ is the sensible place to keep it all
• Bandwidth expands commensurate with the data needs and the vastly increased number of online users
• Privacy and security, already a major concern, become an absolute necessity due to people’s dependence on the internet for so many services and storage of their most personal details.
• Corporates migrate to the ‘cloud’ as security of data access is beefed up

All things ‘nano’ and their applications 

The future is nano

• Nanotechnology become a huge industry with exploration in all aspects of science
• Big business and state funds invest heavily in research and development
• A big winner in this new world is health and medical science as the ability to manipulate cell structure, genetic material allows cures to major illness and disease and the re-growth of lost/damaged organs/limbs
• Radical materials are developed to address the shortcoming of current deficient materials
• New materials are virtually indestructible, withstand tremendous pressure and temperature difference, are malleable, ductile, flexible – whatever property is needed 
• Materials developed from molecular manipulation (i.e. nano-tech) provide new building materials, textiles, fluids – anything you can imagine
• Nano-developed materials are used in fabricating products from the tangible printing sector – basically you can ‘print’ anything that you need (via the right design blueprint) and you can ensure that it has the right properties (flexible, rigid, indestructible, etc.) by using the right building material.

Global community / social networks

The web has created a global tribe          

• Continuing on from  the infrastructure provided by the expanded internet, the growth of social networks continues unabated
• Virtually everyone who joins the online world becomes involved in one or more of these networks
• Big business utilises these frameworks to mine information
• Due to so much commerce moving online and harnessing these social networks, it becomes almost impossible for individuals to avoid participating
• Individual privacy reduces as you need to open up more aspects of your life to participate
• Security increases due to so much dependence on the net for commerce

Solar power

Energy

• Fossil fuels continue to deplete, become more expensive, ecologically unsustainable and non-competitive against renewable sources
• Big business and state invest in developing renewable energy as a power source
• Economies of scale and R&D mean that solar power becomes a major player across the globe
• Solar power is used domestically as well as for large scale electricity production

Artificial Intelligence

Machines that think like humans are coming

• Robots become more agile and able to negotiate rough terrain
• Application to military uses increases – robotic aircraft become an important weapon
• Manufacturing robots develop to fabricate whole products rather than just components – close alignment here with the tangible printing theme
• R&D projects like IBM’s Blue Brain successfully allow artificial intelligence to be developed to emulate certain key human brain functions
• Robots develop brains that allow them to apply logic and make decisions

Next10 Ten for Ten

Next10: 10 technologies for the next 10 years

I love to read, I listen and I absorb yet at best I'm a novice.  I can't predict the future but I can see important work going on all around me.

I have packaged together 10 technologies that I think will be game-changers for the next decade.  So please, consider my suggestions and tell me whether I'm on the right track or missing the wicket by a mile.

Click each of the links to read more about my predictions for these technologies.

1. The internet

I've placed the the internet as my number 1 in my list because I'm am very confident that we will continue to see a year-on-year expansion of what is already in place.  Speeds will increase, the volume of users and devices will explode, and will need a whole lot more places to store it all.

People are going to move to the 'cloud' for storage and and applications, simply because it makes sense.  Portable devices, the interface of the future, don't want to be responsible for holding precious data so we will need a reliable, secure, easily accessible repository for all of this stuff - cloud storage is the answer.


2. Nanotechnology

This is such a game changer.  Nanotechnology has a big part to play in a number of my predictions.  It's going to make a massive impact in the materials we use, the medical advances that make our lives healthier and longer.  I have no qualms about placing this fundamental technology so high on my list.

3. The global community

We can already see the huge impact that connecting people together has had on how we use the internet.  Social media is just the start.  We will be need to be connected to others for our shopping, our continuing education, our career progress.

It will be hard to find a place on this planet that will not be enveloped in this global community explosion.  Time to get on board and find your rightful place !

4. Battery technology

After a lot of thought I've placed this one 4th because I believe we are heading for a new era in battery technology.

Batteries as a power source have always been the weak link.  They fail when you need them most, they weigh you down when you're on the move.  They're an ecological nightmare.

All that is changing and thanks to new technologies and space age materials batteries are about to  become a whole lot better.

5. Radical materials

This is truly exciting technology.  It's as exciting as a magic show and it's the leading edge of science - a roller coaster of invention.  There are fortunes to be made as these materials take their place as the basic building blocks of every new technology that will follow.  Be amazed !


6. The communication interface

So long a barrier to getting online, the basic interface is changing fast and it's making the online world accessible to everyone.

Forget the keyboard and the mouse.  The new world is all about intuitive commands - human voice, eye movement, hand gestures.

Our gateway to the online world is getting a whole lot more accessible for all.

7. Robotics

No, not the stuff of science fiction movies, but expect the next generation of robots to learn new skills, move more naturally and become indispensable for manufacturing everything we need in our brave new world.

8. Fabricating anything

We're starting to see the very early indications of what can be constructed through 3D printing.

This technology is in its infancy but be prepared for this technique to revolutionise the way we manufacture everything.

9. Solar power

Our sun- it's been there forever and it's the reason there is life on earth.  Finally, we are turning up the heat on solar power - a truly renewable energy resource.

10. Exploiting the oceans

We've only just begun to scratch the surface of what lies in our oceans.  An unimaginable treasure trove of precious resources.  Will our exploitation of the sea be measured and fair or will big business rape and pillage the depths?  Let's hope that we can all share in this bountiful resource.


So, there it is.  My top 10.  I welcome your comments.  Yes, really !!

From 10 to 5

Since building this list mid-March, I've rationalised my top 10 down to my top 5 game changers for the next 10 years.  Check them out here.

Next10 and the Internet

The Next 10 Years: Bigger, faster internet

What is this technology?

The internet.  The vast global assembly of billions of computers. We know this modern wonder as the world wide web, the 'net' and the 'interweb'.  It is not a single technology - it's the infrastructure that we use to communicate electronically.

What will happen?

A connected world

The internet will continue to grow at phenomenal rates.  The outline is already there with interconnected backbone services rolled out across the developed world.  These workhorses for data transmission will be beefed up to provide every more capacity and speed, better intercontinental linkages protocols to connect a
practically infinite number of devices to the 'net.

We have server farms already and these will continue to multiply on a world scale as our insatiable need for more reliable storage increases.

Companies and private individuals will look to the cloud to provide all the services that we want - access to entertainment, news and knowledge systems, almost infinite storage capacity, connectivity from any device that can transmit and receive a data stream, the security of data back-up and guaranteed recovery capability.

How will this impact society?

Virtually everyone on the planet will have some level of connection to the internet.  The developed world will have almost universal access to faster data services, differentiated primarily by the power of the device they use to interact with the web.

More intuitive interfaces (primarily voice) mean that current barriers to access to non-technical users are largely removed.  Illiteracy and inability to operate a keyboard no longer prevent access to others.

A revolution in learning

Tradtional primary, secondary and tertiary education will be radically changed as the syllabus moves from a static, proscribed format to an interactive, real time relationship with like-minded scholars around the world.  Learning through interaction stimulates people to return to education.

The bigger, faster internet supports true multimedia streaming capability that is accessible by everyone from the private smartphone user to the largest corporate user who teleconferences with remote workers spread around the globe.  The available streaming capacity allows people to consume as much bandwidth as they need without interruption.

Secure cloud based storage means that no-one loses their precious information and no-one can ever again claim that the dog ate their homework.

How will this impact industry?

The rise of the internet has clearly been embraced by many industries but not by all.  It's hard to imagine that any company that wants to sell a service or a product can realistically survive without turning to the web for support.

Certainly bricks and mortar retailing in some market segments already demands a strong web presence - electronics, music, groceries, hardware - these retailers generally have good online shopping as a complement to their high street option.

Tradespeople have generally been slow to embrace the web but a website that allows householders to locate and research the capabilities of, say, a plumber and to contact them, all via the web, sounds like something we should already be seeing.  I would suggest that the average self-employed tradie has not yet done that and probably doesn't realise that this form of self promotion is an important tool.

For companies that have data to store (and in this day and age, surely that's everyone) they will need to make those important decisions on where to keep that information.  The cloud may seem like a great place to keep stuff and give others the responsibility of keeping it safe and secure but is that a given?  Can they be trusted?  Are you dealing with champions or charlatans?   How are you going to determine whether your choice of network and storage provider gives you a robust business continuity plan?  From the smallest trader to the largest enterprise, everyone will need to understand far more about the internet and the services it provides.

What supports this prediction?

The internet of things

Interview with FutureMe

Cisco predict quadrupling of internet traffic by 2015 (article from 2011)

Threefold increase projected by 2015 (made in 2011)

Cisco IP traffic increase projections 2011 - 2016

Next10 and nanotechnology

The Next 10 Years: Nanotechnology

What is this technology?

Nanotechnology is an umbrella term that seeks to describe the science of manipulating elements at a molecular or atomic level.

The ability to alter the fundamental properties of a material presents opportunities of mind-blogging levels.

What will happen?

What would you like to happen is more likely the questions.  The answer will lie with the synergy of science and innovation through design.

We are already seeing the benefits of nanotechnology in new materials that improve dramatically on existing hard and soft textiles.

Medical nanobot

Your portable device no longer needs to be made from a rigid, shatter-prone material.   Instead it will be able to twist, roll, fold or bounce.  Fragile objects like laptops, smartphones, glass screens will re re-engineered to be virtually indestructible.

The ability to manipulate molecular structures to change the fundamental properties of the material will have massive benefits in medical science.  The current barriers for neuroscience and gene therapy will crumble.  Diseased organs, congenital defects and genetic malformations will be fixable using nano processes.

How will this impact society?

The ability to cure or prevent the bulk of the diseases that currently prove fatal will ensure that future citizens can enjoy longer, pain free lives.  More premature babies will be saved and it will be practical to repair bodies that are severely damaged by accident or abuse.

Nanotechnology - atomic manipulation

More people will live for much longer, placing considerably more financial and logistical pressure on infrastructure.  People will be capable of working for long and will certainly be generally healthy enough to enjoy more recreational activities for longer than they do currently.

Depending on whether or not we see a global upsurge in larger families (better childhood survival rates) we may find that the average age of the population continues to increase.

New materials made possible by nanotechnology will touch every aspect of society from the most advanced technology devices to the humble building blocks that we use to constructs our homes and put clothes on our backs.

How will this impact industry?

Access to use these new wonder materials, to fight disease, to deliver drugs and to repair organs through nano processes will not be open to just anyone.  There is currently unprecedented activity in the intellectual property space to protect all manner of technology so the development of new surgical processes will inevitably require the licensing of IP that belongs to other companies, individuals, universities.

There will no doubt be accusations of patent infringements with in and out of court settlements to follow.  In some areas advances in producing the next generation process or product will be swamped by legal obstacles.

Nanotechnology is allowing huge leaps in the design of batteries - an essential element in any device that requires power.  Nanowires much thinner than a human hair are creating electrodes capable of many times more power delivery than the current generation.

Nanotechnology is a field where the crossover into all other future trends in being felt most keenly - it is the ultimate crossover trend.  The radical new wonder materials and the advances in drug delivery to infected cells could not progress without the game-changing advances of nanotechnology.

What supports this prediction?

Hydrophillic, hydrophobic materials

Superconductive technology

Top 10 nanotech products (Forbes.com)

Hepatitis killing nanobots

Nano capacitors

Next10 and global community

The Next 10 Years: The global community

What is this technology?

This is not so much a technology, more of a universal social change.  Technology is making this phenomenon a reality but it is the action of  humankind harnessing this convergence of technologies that is strengthening and expanding the global community.

This article explores how how technology will make this happen,

What will happen?

We are already seeing the framework of a global connected community, most overtly visible through massive social media neighbourhoods.  Facebook, Twitter, MySpace, Bebo and a host of other social communities are allow people all over the globe to connect electronically with long lost friends, expand their existing friendships by meeting people from their extended group and meeting people with whom they have no prior contact but share a common interest.  Google Groups and similar community boards are the modern day equivalent of social clubs.

The providers of these vast social networks will wax and wane based on how well they interpret their users' needs but the infrastructure is here to stay.  Niche players will continue to arise out of nowhere and they will build new communities before being pounced on by a fat cat market-leader, who will absorb these groups, thus broadening the reach of  these 'uber-communities'.

These global groups will increase enormously in volume of members and in the amount of data they wish to share.    The infrastructure required to satisfy this massive increase in bandwidth and storage requirement will be provided by shinier and brighter internet.  (LINK).  Developing nations will also reap the benefits of an expanded internet and will introduce large volumes of candidates for the connected community.

Communities will comprise every section of society from the individual user to the largest corporate looking to leverage the massive audience to buy services and products.

Academic institutions, empowered by the reach of the world wide web and access to a true global community will focus on offering on-line based education to students far beyond the physical campus.  The best of these centres will successfully establish a global undergraduate and graduate roll that brings the opportunity of academic excellence, regardless of where the student lives.

High definition video and crystal clear audio will allow you to partner with others for group chats, concerts, shared movie viewings or anything else that you have in common.

How will this impact society?

Opting out of this worldwide community will become virtually impossible unless you choose to switch off from the modern world.

Retail shopping will become part of the social media infrastructure and your ability to buy goods and services online will require you to be a member of the community group.

Your likes and dislikes, interests and passions, your purchasing habits and your political affiliations will be components of the complex profile that follows you within this community.

Your ability to protect your anonymity will be largely eroded as you will be barred access to most services unless you are prepared to identify yourself as bonafide real person.  That's not to say that you will be exposed or vulnerable.  Successful communities will provide much stronger, versatile security that allows an individual to welcome most advances from legitimate sources and to effectively block nefarious intruders.

Your social community profile will be a true reflection of your real life personality and you will guard your online reputation with the same determination as you do your real life dignity and reputation.  The power to ostracize a disreputable person, group or company lies with the community so all members will need to be vigilant and careful in their online actions.

You will no longer be limited to communicating through message board type posts or low-frame video streams.  The shiny new bandwidth-crazy internet will allow you to interact with as many of your community people as you desire through worldwide video conferencing that pulls in as many or as few people who want to participate.

If you don't want to be branded a slob, you had better get dressed and tidy the kitchen before you welcome your virtual friends into your home !

What supports this prediction?

Reverse engineering the human brain

Next10 and communication interface

The Next 10 Years: The communication interface

What is this technology?

Yet again, a convergence of technologies rather than a single innovation.

At its simplest, the communication interface is the method we use to drive our computer technology, to interact with it.

The Wii experience - tennis in your lounge

We issue commands (input) and receive responses.   We are seeing the seeds of voice-driven computing with projects like Siri and Google Assistant.

We've already seen the effect that intuitive interfaces can have on the entertainment industry.  Look at how Nintendo popularised a whole new gaming experience with their Wii console that allowed you to play tennis in your lounge as if you were on centre court.  All other manufacturers quickly followed suit and these kind of peripherals are standard equipment now in the gaming arena.

What will happen?

The keyboard's days are numbered

Our current dependence on the keyboard and the mouse will be largely replaced by voice commands, touch, hand gestures and eye movement.  We'll see this capability sweeping through all areas where we currently need our fingers to operate a device - a TV remote, a computer, a multimedia system.

Our unique voice prints or retinal scans will replace conventional security mechanism for gaining access to secured computer systems.

Tom Cruise in Minority Rerport (2002)

Voice commands will develop from simple proscribed keywords to interpretative, intuitive systems that understand everyday speech, recognise different emotions and prompt for more information in the case of ambiguous commands.

How will this impact society?

Virtually everyone will have the ability to access the connected world.  Literacy, the ability to operate a mechanical keyboard or mouse have long been barriers for many and have limited or even prevented their access to this new technology.

As voice driven systems become more flexible, even the untrained user will be able to command a machine through everyday speech.

What supports this prediction?

Eye scrolling comes to the Android smartphone (Samsung Galaxy S4)

Voice biometrics control access

Google Glass

Eyewear from Nokia

Evolution of the mouse interface

The smartphone is your gateway to the online world

Making the TV remote redundant

Google Glass (Techradar)

Wrist tech - meet the SmartWatch

Next10 and robotics

The Next 10 Years: Robotics

What is this technology?

Robotics is the diverse field of technology concerned with the design, development and constructions of robots.

Again, this technology is not new but what is happening in the robotics arena is nothing short of groundbreaking.

So where will it go next?

What will happen?

Arnie as the Terminator

We're not going to see the cyborgs of Hollywood heroes like the Universal Soldier or the Terminator in the next 10 years but we will see an explosion in the robotics arena, with ever increasing applications in the industrial, military, medical, and domestic sectors.

Robotics research is overcoming many of the barriers that have previously slowed progress.  Static robots employed in factories are already sophisticated but their cousins that need to move like a human or an animal over uneven terrain have struggled.  Projects like BigDog are showing that these challenges are being overcome and robots can move out into the wild (let's hope they don't turn feral).

Watson supercomputer at the heart of Blue Brain project

Teaching robots to think seems like a daunting challenge but projects such a Blue Brain (IBM's attempt to reverse engineer the human brain) will move robots from unthinking slaves to reasoning, problem solving, human-like entities.

The military applications are both exciting and frightening.  Rather than endanger their men and women, military powers will send in robots to do this work.  More sophisticated drones will develop to spy on and terminate threats without the need for human pilots or gunners.  Unlike today's drones that move at an almost sedentary pace, ultrasonic speed will send these agents of death to their targets in minutes, wherever they are in the world.

Robots will assist or even replace surgeons for performing the most intricate or surgery.  Metal scalpels will be consigned to the scrapheap as lasers make incisions and nanobots heal tissue and organs without the trauma of invasive surgery.

Robots will remove much of the grunt work from geriatric and invalid care and may even provide companionship for lonely souls.

How will this impact society?

Robots have long been employed in industry building cars, computer circuit boards and a multitude of precision instruments and our dependence on robots for engineering will continue to increase

Cylon centurion (Battlestar Galactica)

Robots will begin to enter the domestic sphere through labour saving devices in the home.

Medical equipment (MRI, CAT) will be rolled out in more hospitals and clinics and will become more affordable.  Use of these robotic wonders will become routine for early diagnosis of illness rather than detection of more developed problems.

Military operations will partner robotic machines to perform aerial and terrestrial insurgence to enemy positions to transmit detailed surveillance information.  Targeted attecks aginst the enemy by aerial drones and robotic successors to present-day tanks will reduce enemy defences to shreds.  Human forces will only be sent in to areas where enemy positions are already decimated.  The loss of life on the technologically equipped side will be minimal whereas the opposing side will be virtually eliminated.  With the odds of success heavily weighed against them only psychotic commanders would take the offensive against a technologically superior opposition.

Cylons will not have destroyed the earth or enslaved its inhabitants within the next 10 years !

What supports this prediction?

Reverse engineering the human brain

Riba the Robo-nurse

Nanorobotics

Robot wall climber

Hypersonic travel

Next10 and exploiting the oceans

The Next 10 Years: Exploiting the oceans

What is this technology?

Again this is not a single technology but a convergence of many interconnected technologies and processes.

What will happen?

Man has been dipping his toe in the world's oceans for hundreds of years but is now venturing into the deepest depths using devices more akin to those we send into outer space.

Deep sea exploration will continue - of that there is little doubt.  With 70% of our world covered by water we still know so little about what is out there in the blue beyond.

Miracle cures from the ocean?

The creatures we find in the most inhospitable places hold secrets that science can use to create curative compounds, thermally improved and pressure resistant materials.

The ability to reach the deep ocean floor will open up opportunities to mine precious metals, harvest fossil fuel deposits to replenish or dwindling supplies.

Commercial and scientific organisations will come together to construct deep sea laboratories and mining facilities.  Workers will be expected to live for extensive periods at the bottom of the oceans, protected by the strongest structures that man has ever built.

How will this impact society?

Underwater laboratory

Exploitation of this last great frontier will present myriad ethical issues for governments of the world.  Who owns the deep sea, what international protection can be used to ensure that big business is not allowed to rape the sea in the way that fishing fleets have?

The study of the strange creatures that are still to be discovered in the deep ocean may reveal answers to how organic life can overcome the odds and survive in the coldest, darkest, bone-crushingly pressurised parts of our world.

What supports this prediction?

The race to the bottom of the world

Creatures from the deep (Te Ara encylopaedia)

The Aquarius underwater laboratory (NOAA)

Next10 and fabricating anything

The Next 10 Years: Fabricate anything

What is this technology?

This is a game-changing technology that we are just starting to see the first wave of - 3D printing.

This is a good representation of the convergence of computer aided design, development of radical materials, robotics and 3D printing techniques.

What will happen?

Demonstrating rudimentary 3D

Current 3D printing capability is rudimentary in the materials that can be used for fabricating the 3 dimensional shape of the finished product but this.  The current generation of printers are standalone, small footprint devices, more suited to experimental science laboratories rather than for commercial high-volume operations.

Large scale 3D printing processes will utilise the next generation of robots.  The dimensions of what can be constructed as a single entity will increase substantially.

Radical new materials, made possible by applying nanotechnology to manipulate at a molecular level will provide building materials that are virtually indestructable, infinitely flexible and impervious to the ill-effects of weathering and exposure to extreme conditions.

Robots will create objects, not just assemble

Once a design has been created within a computer, the ability to replicate that design as a physical object will be limited only by the number of robots employed to construct the 3D object and the speed with which they can complete the tasks.

Quality expectations for this technology are set extremely high.  Unlike conventional manufacturing where a level of tolerance is required in dimensions, uniformity of surface and rigidity, products 'printed' through applying this technology will be identical clones of one another and each should be as perfect as the next.

How will this impact society?

Traditional manufacturing processes will largely disappear in industries where high volume output is required.

The number of people employed in manufacturing will contract substantially and the types of work those remaining perform will be unrecognisable.   There will still be semi-skilled opportunities for assembling finished products from 'printed' components, where the use of robots is either uneconomic.  However, most of the skilled work will be in the area of product innovation, product definition within the sophisticated computer aided design environment, design and construction of the assembly robots and maintenance of the factory plant.

Traditional non-skilled and semi-skilled factory work will largely disappear, certainly in the area of sophisticated, technology focused product lines.

Developing countries that currently contribute to the global manufacturing process by supplying large numbers of cheap labour may struggle to retain these high-tech industries.  If companies pull production out of these primarily south-east Asian locations, what does that do the local economy?  Many of these people have abandoned an agrarian existence to chase better opportunities in the factories of new urban areas so what do they do once the factories close and their fragile livelihood is lost.

How will this impact industry?

A company engaged in labour-intensive manufacturing is going to need to make some fundamental decisions about their business model.

Do you continue to follow a low-tech route and pump your investment into assembly lines focused around people or do you instead look to spend substantial money on creating a robot production line practically devoid of people?  Clearly both options have appeal but for different reasons.

For cash-strapped industries the initial investment in costly machines may be prohibitive, even though in the long term they will capable of churning out larger volumes of high quality products that provide a long term excellent return on investments.  It may simply be beyond your current means to bring about such a radical change in your infrastructure.

If a company makes that decision to make the switch from labour intensive production to a machine oriented one, does it still make sense to keep the manufacturing capability in the developing world?  After all, the decision for a western-owned company to manufacture far from their home market was an economic one - cheap labour.  When low skill, bulk labour is no longer needed does it make any sense to have manufacturing in offshore locations?

What supports this prediction?

A cornucopia of 3D printing ideas

3D printing - the future looks bright (Cnet)

Next10 and solar power

The Next 10 Years: Solar power

What is this technology?

Solar power is the harnessing of energy from the sun in order to generate electricity.

This is not a new technology - solar or photovoltaic cells have been with us since 1931.

Solar (photovoltaic) panels

Solar power is a renewable energy source, meaning that it is not constrained by a finite supply like traditional fossil fuels, such as coal, oil or gas.

Solar power is already widely used domestically, generally as a secondary or back-up power source by mounting photovoltaic panels on the house roof.

Solar energy collection is ramped up on a commercial scale to generate power that feeds into the power grid like this development in the deserts of Nevada.

So, it's already happening but where will it go next?

What will happen?

Governments are coming under increasing pressure to change energy generation from fossil fuels and nuclear energy to sustainable, renewable methods.  That pressure will continue to build, resulting in civil unrest in states that refuse to yield to public opinion.

International treaties will penalise countries that fail to embrace renewable technologies, leading to trade sanctions and financial sanctions for non-compliance.

Tax breaks, government grants and other financial incentives will favour renewable energy schemes.

Private and commercial enterprise will develop solar power generation to create more efficient methods of generation, transmission and storage of electricity harnessed from solar radiation.

How will this impact society?

Land will need to be set aside to build vast solar farms.  In the same way that communities must now learn to live with the visual effects of wind farm developments, they will need to accept that power generation using solar power also requires allocating precious land resources.

50 hectares and 150,000 panels

People want renewable energy, as is demonstrated by the growing support for ecologically aware political parties.  However, it will be interesting to see whether this gives rise to an increasing 'not in my backyard' reaction from local communities.

As solar power generation and power from other renewable sources, such as wind, hydro, and wave enters the mainstream more households will reduce their dependence on commercial generation and install their own   solar panels or wind turbine for self-sustaining.

How will this impact industry?

Renewable energy appeals to people on a personal level.  It has a feel good factor that should not be underestimated.  It's not just the die-hard environmentalists that value projects that redress some of the balance by switching from toxic, resource depleting power generation to harvesting natural elements like the wind or the sun.

A company that can demonstrate commitment to using renewable power sources in their production processes is going to win some supporters from the general public but they may also gain some financial incentives too.  Where government or local councils grants and rebates are available to companies that embrace renewable resources, there are cost savings to be made in production.

Clearly it would be idealistic to think that a factory is going to disconnect from the power grid and plant a wind turbine in the carpark in a bid for self-sufficiency.  However, that same company may be able to save some money by covering their capacious warehouse roof with solar panels to cut down on the power they actually need to draw from the grid.  Those government grants or tax rebates could come in very handy for making those improvements a feasible development.

In developing nations where power has always been unreliable in its availability and prohibitively expensive, power generation from renewable resources like the solar power stations appearing in some Pacific Island nations, there is at last a real chance for sustainable projects and business enterprises to develop.  

What supports this prediction?

Directory of photovoltaic power generators

Greenough River solar farm (Australia)

Solar farm in Ghana

Hawaiian solar farm up and running

Tax incentives for solar energy (New York)

Home photovoltaic panels for solar energy

Wind turbine for home installation

Next10 and battery technology

The Next 10 Years: Battery technology

What is this technology?

A battery is a device that uses a chemical reaction to generate electricity.

Batteries power virtually any device that requires mobility or needs to be kept running in the event of the primary (mains) power source failing.

We use batteries everyday.  Nickel metal hydride (NiMH), nickel-cadmium, lead-acid, lithium-ion - chemical elements contained within a metal housing that allows a chemical reaction to create electricity that can be directly harnessed by the host device.

They power the tiniest LED in a torch to the family car.

So, it's already happening but where will it go next?

What will happen?

Battery technology is changing fast.  The materials used in convention batteries are often very heavy and caustic to our environment.  Leakage from batteries pollutes our landfills with highly acidic discharge.  Battery recycling is expensive, messy and poorly implemented so consumers and industry continue to dispose them in an ecologically damage manner.

Conventional batteries for everyday use

Single use (disposable) batteries will gradually be phased out and multi-recharge units will replace them.  The number of recharge cycles will increase and the disposal facilities will be implemented to reduce the toxic dumping of spent batteries.

New radical materials like Aerographite will make batteries substantially lighter and smaller.  Batteries used to power high capacity devices such as electric cars will reduce the weight considerably, and require a lower power input for the same level of performance.

Materials with built in elasticity will allow for non-rigid, flexible batteries to be woven into textile, bringing clothing that has built-in power.

How will this impact society?

Batteries have long been the Achilles heel of sustained performance from our electrical devices.

New technologies will substantially prolong the endurance of battery packs, make them much more portable and less toxic to the environment.

Government, industry and consumers will better understand the ecological damage wreaked by traditional battery materials and will demand the phasing out of the toxic elements.

What supports this prediction?

New battery technology to watch

Stretchy materials and Aerographite batteries

A wonder material?

The lithium iron phosphate battery

High capacity and fast charging lithium ion

Smartphones and their inadequate batteries

Marine bacteria power bio-batteries

10 years on

Could you predict the next 50 years for technology innovation?  No, how about the next 10?

Only 10?

10 years is surely still a big ask, isn't it?

OK, we're a bit more realistic than when Star Trek hit our screen and we know that we're not going to reach warp speed any time soon.  Are we ever?

In the home 10 years we will have already lived through a communications revolution.  Unlike now where I'm sitting anchored at my desk in my dedicated study typing onto a keyboard and looking at fixed screen, I'm not going to be doing that.  I'll be talking to someone, anyone, anywhere in the world while I walk around, doing a hundred and one things (just like I curently do when I'm on the phone).

Unlike now though, cameras mounted throughout the building will automatically detect my presence (if I want to be on camera) and will allow me to move around freely.  Those images will be mixed and transmitted to my friends through a link that is so much faster and capable of such enhanced bandwidth that the images can be as high definition as required, no lag, no jerky movement, crystal clear audio and overlaid with any other text or images I want to send simultaneously.  I'm not restricted to a single feed either.  Every one of my family could be doing the same as me and we could still have the neighbours around to try unsuccessfully to eat up all that capacity.

We'll have video displays all over the house - on walls, on tables.  Displays so thin that they can be sited anywhere.  Displays that bend so you're no longer limited to flat surfaces.  Images projected onto any reflective surface will be commonplace.  Glasses that project the image before my eyes mean I can move anywhere I want without losing contact.

Voice command has replaced the need to type words and rhe haptic band on my wrist allows me to scroll an image with a simple natural movement.

Much of this technology is already here but it's expensive and takes a lot of installation.  In 10 years these will be mature, ubiquitous products that every developed nation has.

That's just the home communications - what else can we expect?

Interview with Future Me

"If your future self could be talking to you now, what would s/he have to tell you about the future?"

Future Me has a clear advantage over Present Me.  He has already seen things I haven't yet seen plus he knows everything I already know, too.  He also has the benefit of hindsight and he can see the mistakes I am yet to make, the opportunities I will either ignore or fail to exploit to their full potential.  He's in a pretty good position to dole out any amount of useful advice - if only he's prepared to share it.

I'm guessing you're feeling pretty smug, Future Me, looking at your fledgling self - are you full of pity for me or am I an OK guy?  Are you angry at me for moving in the wrong direction for what must be obvious to you from your time-warped position of knowledge?

Is Future Me telling Current Me that I should have embraced this technology and bypassed that one?  Hardly !  They're all just stepping stones to something better.  Future Me will not be hung up on a specific technology.  He will laugh at me for worrying whether I can operate devices that run iOS, Windows, Android.  Who cares what the programming environment is?  Future Me assures me that these devices all talk happily to each other through control processes that render the underlying operating system irrelevant to the user.

I'm pleased to see that Future Me confirms that the power of language is even more important where we're headed.  Not the formal, academic English of yesteryear but the ability to be understood, without ambiguity in just a few words.  There's no time to compose long tomes - immediacy is key but the skill that will make my voice heard above the billions of other communicators is the use of succinct, inciteful, honest, no nonsense words, laced with humour and compassion.

I'll be communicating with so many more people every day than I currently do and I'll have a lot less 'alone time'.  Escaping to a quiet place will be far more challenging.  Why would I want to hide out anyway?

What does the future hold?

Future Me has great news for me about the technology interface.  In fact Future Me won't need baffling words like "interface" because using technology will require little or no help for me to harness it.  I will be surrounded by complex technology but interacting with it will be far less complicated than it currently is.  I won't need a training course or a user guide to show me how to operate it.  It will be intuitive - it will understand my voice and will respond to my touch.  I won't need to think how the technology worked - I'll just expect that it will behave predictably.  It won't frustrate me but instead will guide me forward.  I will welcome the opportunity to use it rather than worry that it might fail me.

Future Me will be amused that I'm hung up on trying to predict which gadget will succeed and which will die because they failed to adapt to the changing world.  He tells me that I should, even in 2013, be well aware that all devices have a limited shelf life and are constantly evolving into something faster, smarter, cheaper.  I should already know that display devices, communication tools, are throwaway consumables and that aspect will not change.  If I think today's devices are smart I have some wonderful surprises ahead and I will be stunned by my own naivety.

The greatest message of hope that Future Me will have for Current Me is that quality of life through better health is just around the corner - there is unbelievable advance in prevention and cure coming in every aspect of medicine.  Today's blunt, invasive and dangerous surgery looks positively barbaric alongside the micro- and nano-surgery techniques that are already taking their early steps around me now.  Those diseases that have killed or crippled people we know are mostly treatable or preventable in the not too distant future.  If only they had been available in my current time, how different life would be for our family.  Future Me can see what is possible whereas I can only hope that the cure for those life threatening ailments is nearly here.

I think that my meeting with Future Me has left me exhausted but happy.  There's a bright world ahead and Future Me is not going to spoil the surprise by giving me all the details.  But hang in there, accept that nothing stands still, hone those social skills and embrace every opportunity to interact with your fellow man.