Window rot

PC sales are sinking fast

They were staking so much on Windows 8.  It was going to turn Microsoft around but sales figures for Q1 2013 tell a different story.

Less people are buying PCs and laptops.  Instead they're turning to their tablets and their smartphones for the services they use most often - social media, email, texts, anything that keeps them in touch with their community.  You don't need a PC for that kind of activity.  In fact a PC is a hindrance to the always-on, always-connected generation since you can't lug it around everywhere you go.

It doesn't look the same

It's hardly surprising then that people are buying less traditional hardware.  What's exacerbating the decline is that Microsoft, the dominant supplier of operating systems for this gear, has radically changed its user interface.  Windows 8 looks very different to Windows 7 and the XP, 98, 95 interface that every knows and loves (kind of).  At a time when the Windows device is losing popularity, the need to learn a new interface was a bit of a disaster.

Some of the falls are staggering where ever upwards is the name of the game.  PC/laptop sales are down 11-14% compared to Q1 2012.  The world's biggest PC manufacturer, Hewlett-Packard, has seen a 24% drop - that's serious stuff.  Of course, it's not all down to Windows 8 - the PC as the dominant computing device has had its day.

You don't need a PC for Temple Run

Now I don't think everyone is going to be taking their PC hardware to the landfill just yet but it does show that user patterns are shifting markedly to small, handheld devices.   If you are into graphic design, if you build web sites, if you dwell in dark basements crunching large volumes of digital data then this change is not going to persuade you to dump the PC.  But, if you are primarily interested in staying in touch, taking snapshots of your day and playing Temple Run, then you really have little use for the PC or it's operating system.

Time for an industry to survey the market and make some serious adjustments.

World PC sales down as Windows 8 flops (NZ Herald)

PC slaes plunge (Stuff)

PC sales down 14% - biggest drop on record (NDTV)

Don't just blame Windows 8 (Mashable)

Windows 8 fails to excite (Telegraph UK)

Q1 2013 14% drop (IDC)

Worst ever PC shipment quarter (TthinkDigit)

Next10 and communication interface

The Next 10 Years: The communication interface

What is this technology?

Yet again, a convergence of technologies rather than a single innovation.

At its simplest, the communication interface is the method we use to drive our computer technology, to interact with it.

The Wii experience - tennis in your lounge

We issue commands (input) and receive responses.   We are seeing the seeds of voice-driven computing with projects like Siri and Google Assistant.

We've already seen the effect that intuitive interfaces can have on the entertainment industry.  Look at how Nintendo popularised a whole new gaming experience with their Wii console that allowed you to play tennis in your lounge as if you were on centre court.  All other manufacturers quickly followed suit and these kind of peripherals are standard equipment now in the gaming arena.

What will happen?

The keyboard's days are numbered

Our current dependence on the keyboard and the mouse will be largely replaced by voice commands, touch, hand gestures and eye movement.  We'll see this capability sweeping through all areas where we currently need our fingers to operate a device - a TV remote, a computer, a multimedia system.

Our unique voice prints or retinal scans will replace conventional security mechanism for gaining access to secured computer systems.

Tom Cruise in Minority Rerport (2002)

Voice commands will develop from simple proscribed keywords to interpretative, intuitive systems that understand everyday speech, recognise different emotions and prompt for more information in the case of ambiguous commands.

How will this impact society?

Virtually everyone will have the ability to access the connected world.  Literacy, the ability to operate a mechanical keyboard or mouse have long been barriers for many and have limited or even prevented their access to this new technology.

As voice driven systems become more flexible, even the untrained user will be able to command a machine through everyday speech.

What supports this prediction?

Eye scrolling comes to the Android smartphone (Samsung Galaxy S4)

Voice biometrics control access

Google Glass

Eyewear from Nokia

Evolution of the mouse interface

The smartphone is your gateway to the online world

Making the TV remote redundant

Google Glass (Techradar)

Wrist tech - meet the SmartWatch