Next10 and fabricating anything

The Next 10 Years: Fabricate anything

What is this technology?

This is a game-changing technology that we are just starting to see the first wave of - 3D printing.

This is a good representation of the convergence of computer aided design, development of radical materials, robotics and 3D printing techniques.

What will happen?

Demonstrating rudimentary 3D

Current 3D printing capability is rudimentary in the materials that can be used for fabricating the 3 dimensional shape of the finished product but this.  The current generation of printers are standalone, small footprint devices, more suited to experimental science laboratories rather than for commercial high-volume operations.

Large scale 3D printing processes will utilise the next generation of robots.  The dimensions of what can be constructed as a single entity will increase substantially.

Radical new materials, made possible by applying nanotechnology to manipulate at a molecular level will provide building materials that are virtually indestructable, infinitely flexible and impervious to the ill-effects of weathering and exposure to extreme conditions.

Robots will create objects, not just assemble

Once a design has been created within a computer, the ability to replicate that design as a physical object will be limited only by the number of robots employed to construct the 3D object and the speed with which they can complete the tasks.

Quality expectations for this technology are set extremely high.  Unlike conventional manufacturing where a level of tolerance is required in dimensions, uniformity of surface and rigidity, products 'printed' through applying this technology will be identical clones of one another and each should be as perfect as the next.

How will this impact society?

Traditional manufacturing processes will largely disappear in industries where high volume output is required.

The number of people employed in manufacturing will contract substantially and the types of work those remaining perform will be unrecognisable.   There will still be semi-skilled opportunities for assembling finished products from 'printed' components, where the use of robots is either uneconomic.  However, most of the skilled work will be in the area of product innovation, product definition within the sophisticated computer aided design environment, design and construction of the assembly robots and maintenance of the factory plant.

Traditional non-skilled and semi-skilled factory work will largely disappear, certainly in the area of sophisticated, technology focused product lines.

Developing countries that currently contribute to the global manufacturing process by supplying large numbers of cheap labour may struggle to retain these high-tech industries.  If companies pull production out of these primarily south-east Asian locations, what does that do the local economy?  Many of these people have abandoned an agrarian existence to chase better opportunities in the factories of new urban areas so what do they do once the factories close and their fragile livelihood is lost.

How will this impact industry?

A company engaged in labour-intensive manufacturing is going to need to make some fundamental decisions about their business model.

Do you continue to follow a low-tech route and pump your investment into assembly lines focused around people or do you instead look to spend substantial money on creating a robot production line practically devoid of people?  Clearly both options have appeal but for different reasons.

For cash-strapped industries the initial investment in costly machines may be prohibitive, even though in the long term they will capable of churning out larger volumes of high quality products that provide a long term excellent return on investments.  It may simply be beyond your current means to bring about such a radical change in your infrastructure.

If a company makes that decision to make the switch from labour intensive production to a machine oriented one, does it still make sense to keep the manufacturing capability in the developing world?  After all, the decision for a western-owned company to manufacture far from their home market was an economic one - cheap labour.  When low skill, bulk labour is no longer needed does it make any sense to have manufacturing in offshore locations?

What supports this prediction?

A cornucopia of 3D printing ideas

3D printing - the future looks bright (Cnet)