Swings and roundabouts

http://news.msn.co.nz/nationalnews/8496825/dotcoms-extradition-hearing-delayed

Yes, interesting question – who won?  Not sure that anyone has won yet but there are a mix of wins and losses on all sides:

·         Delays to Dotcom’s extradition case have kept him out of prison, which is obviously a win for him.  I’m guessing that he is indicted on federal charges rather than just state ones so if he had been extradited they could have put in a deep hole of a federal prison.

·         As Dotcom said to the media, the seizure of his servers by US authorities and freezing of most of his assets cost him millions and put him out of business so the US authorities won that one.

·         The long reach of the US government to bring about arrests of non-US citizens outside of the US sent shockwaves through the file sharing industry.  Most of the big names are running scared and have either shut down completely or changed their operating models

·         The shoddy legal standing for his arrest and the long delays to the extradition proceedings has meant that Dotcom has been able to get out of prison, has got some of his assets back and is free to carry on his business.  Another Dotcom win.

·         Dotcom has learned very quickly what can be used against him as far as the Megaupload model goes.  His newly launched Mega service further distances his business from knowledge of what people store on their accounts – a model he hopes will protect him and his company from accusations of participating in piracy.

·         Dotcom may be the devil incarnate as far as the US state department is concerned but business people don’t necessarily share that view.  Look at how Dotcom has managed to recruit the chief of InternetNZ to head up his new venture.  In the glory days of Megaupload he had no problem getting celebrities to front his commercials.   

·         The US authorities leaned heavily on New Zealand to bring the action in the first place.  Another win for US government in showing the world that they can still bully other nations.

·         As they say, no publicity is bad publicity. Dotcom has become something of a folk hero, particularly here in NZ.  He’s managed to cast himself as an innocent victim of state brutality – particularly with the violence of his arrest and the presence of his pregnant wife through the siege.   He doesn’t look like a criminal mastermind.  Honestly, can anyone be scared of a man who is a success in panto?

·         A dubious win for NZ – we are now famous/infamous for something other than agriculture, tourism and hobbits.  Harbouring suspected international pirates will win kudos in some quarters even if it sends shudders through others.

I’d say that there’s no clear winner as yet and that the legal process mistakes made by the US and the NZ could mean that he either never goes to trial or that the charges will be greatly diluted. 

Dotcom has learned some costly lessons from the Megaupload takedown