The world in 2020

I've just been watching the predictions for the world by 2020 - a fascinating slideshow posted on this World by 2020 presentation (YouTube)

What's in store for us by 2020?

Very interesting slideshow with a wide range of technology featured and social impacts based primarily on our failure to address environment concerns (extinction of animals in Africa, humanitarian crisis in southern Asia, etc).

2020 is slightly earlier than my 10 year range of 2023 but it certainly filled me with hope that I'm are on the right track.

In the video I saw a number of medical advances - cures for disease, use of nanobots entering the operation arena.

They also featured a probe that would enter the sun's atmosphere - did I understand that bit correctly?  If this is going to happen we are going to need some radical new materials that can withstand unbelievable levels of heat (not to mention the ability to travel 90 million miles - when will it need to leave earth?)

There were predictions on a number of tech fronts - sending messages by thinking (careful what you think !!), textiles that use processes from nanotechnology.

I think the connected user figure was 5 billion but I'll need to replay to check that.  Clearly that's a huge number but according to the world population forecasts we'll have 8 billion people on the planet so that's only just over 60%.

Anyway, I'm going to watch this one again, plus a few others as I think these provide good validators for my current thinking.  It's certainly no simple matter being a future gazer, even with all this excellent help from fellow futurists.

Predictions for 2030

Take a look at this prediction for what the world may look like by 2030.

A high technology decade

From Top 10 to Top 5

I'm currently working through some thought processes for what will be the 'game changer' trends and technologies over the next 10 years.  I started out with a list of 10 and I'm now condensing that to just 5.

It's a sorting and prioritising process that is gradually coming together.  I've gathered together an evolving list that I'll share with you now.  Take a look and give me some feedback in the comments for this post.  I really welcome your thoughts.

The next 10 years is an exciting and challenging time.  Here's how I see it in 5 key areas . . . .

Internet evolution

The web grows bigger

• The internet continues to expand at a staggering rate.
• Access to all things online improves as interfaces become far more intuitive and current barriers to access dissolve as clunky devices like keyboards are replaced by gesture, eye movement/scanning, voice biometrics
• Storage capability increases at a phenomenal rate as the need for mobility (always available on all my devices) and greatly increased data needs mean that the ‘cloud’ is the sensible place to keep it all
• Bandwidth expands commensurate with the data needs and the vastly increased number of online users
• Privacy and security, already a major concern, become an absolute necessity due to people’s dependence on the internet for so many services and storage of their most personal details.
• Corporates migrate to the ‘cloud’ as security of data access is beefed up

All things ‘nano’ and their applications 

The future is nano

• Nanotechnology become a huge industry with exploration in all aspects of science
• Big business and state funds invest heavily in research and development
• A big winner in this new world is health and medical science as the ability to manipulate cell structure, genetic material allows cures to major illness and disease and the re-growth of lost/damaged organs/limbs
• Radical materials are developed to address the shortcoming of current deficient materials
• New materials are virtually indestructible, withstand tremendous pressure and temperature difference, are malleable, ductile, flexible – whatever property is needed 
• Materials developed from molecular manipulation (i.e. nano-tech) provide new building materials, textiles, fluids – anything you can imagine
• Nano-developed materials are used in fabricating products from the tangible printing sector – basically you can ‘print’ anything that you need (via the right design blueprint) and you can ensure that it has the right properties (flexible, rigid, indestructible, etc.) by using the right building material.

Global community / social networks

The web has created a global tribe          

• Continuing on from  the infrastructure provided by the expanded internet, the growth of social networks continues unabated
• Virtually everyone who joins the online world becomes involved in one or more of these networks
• Big business utilises these frameworks to mine information
• Due to so much commerce moving online and harnessing these social networks, it becomes almost impossible for individuals to avoid participating
• Individual privacy reduces as you need to open up more aspects of your life to participate
• Security increases due to so much dependence on the net for commerce

Solar power

Energy

• Fossil fuels continue to deplete, become more expensive, ecologically unsustainable and non-competitive against renewable sources
• Big business and state invest in developing renewable energy as a power source
• Economies of scale and R&D mean that solar power becomes a major player across the globe
• Solar power is used domestically as well as for large scale electricity production

Artificial Intelligence

Machines that think like humans are coming

• Robots become more agile and able to negotiate rough terrain
• Application to military uses increases – robotic aircraft become an important weapon
• Manufacturing robots develop to fabricate whole products rather than just components – close alignment here with the tangible printing theme
• R&D projects like IBM’s Blue Brain successfully allow artificial intelligence to be developed to emulate certain key human brain functions
• Robots develop brains that allow them to apply logic and make decisions

3 dimensional audio

The BBC are playing with 3D audio

I like the sound of this 3-dimensional audio technology created by the BBC.

We've seen huge advances in the presentation of video pictures and we have long had clear sound but this technology could take the audio experience to a whole new level.

If they get this one right and can get the market to take it up we could see a new level of realistic sound coming through our television and radio broadcasts.

It's all about fooling our brains by transmitting the sound using certain psycho-acoustic tricks.  The good news is that the effect could be used with existing equipment.

Glaring abuse

Lasers are a menace in the wrong hands

Good to see that California is getting tougher with this unbelievably stupid craze for shining laser torches into the cockpits of aircraft.  This guy has been sentenced to 2½ years in jail.  I don't know how a judge works out that this merits only a light penalty although I guess abusing technology in this manner isn't recognised in law as an intent to murder.

Lasers are a remarkable invention that have been harnessed for countless life saving purposes.  Such a shame that they can also be abused so readily, too.

The darker side of the net

Spam Bandits

I read a disturbing story on the BBC site (always an excellent source of science and technology material).

What does it take to slow down the internet on a global level?  Who would want to take this kind of

The net is on a go-slow

malicious action?  Well, it appears the bandits behind some of the biggest spam  distributors, a shady outfit called Cyberbunker, who are locked in a battle with an advocacy group called Spamhaus - a not for profit organisation  that helps to filter out this rubbish from the mail system.

The BBC reports suggests that the spammers have enlisted the help of the criminal fraternity to mount cyber-attacks that have slowed many vital servers to the extent that there has been a marked slowdown in internet speed.

So we have bullies, malicious behaviour and organised crime muscling in to provide something that your average user loathes - unsolicited mail.

Not a good look.

Frontier ISPs

Here's another story that talks about vulnerabilities in the network.  It looks like the density of 'frontier' ISPs largely controls whether a nation or territory can be deprived of connectivity.

Stewed apple

Eye catching headline from Henry Cooke on Stuff.co.nz

When I see a headline like this I'm always going to read it.  In this instance I see a lot of merit in what Henry Cooke is saying in his article.

Google can do the things that Apple does best - but faster.

I love that he points out how the best search engine, the best map service and many other apps that we take for granted belong to Google, not Apple.

So, even if Apple build in some fab functionality, chances are that in no time at all Google will be doing it too, plus all the mainstay functions we need come from the same stable.

A merciless industry, for sure.

I've been thinking

Separate technologies or strands of something bigger?

Recently I constructed a top 10 list of predictions for the next 10 years - a pretty tall order for a novice like

Rodin's The Thinker

me but it was both fun and challenging to do this piece of future-gazing.  Having identified a short list of 10 trends and technologies I will now attempt to whittle that list down to just 5.

In order to do that I'm going to have to eliminate some  (which seems pretty harsh) or maybe I should try something else.

As I've ruminated on my list of trends I've noticed something very interesting.  There are so many strands of each that intersect with other trends on my list.  I guess it's hardly surprising that these technologies are not operating in isolation of each other.  That makes a lot of sense really - unless something is truly restricted and set apart from the rest of the world order, how could it not have some synergies or relationships with other trends?

Having recovered from this 'eureka' moment I feel energised to start this task of rationalisation.  What will be on my Top 5 list is yet to be decided but I feel confident that at least some of those 5 trends and technologies will contain strands from others on my original Top 10 list.

It's going to be an interesting journey.

The power of the written word

This time I'm thinking about substitution of technology - how different some basic processes are now to "when I were a lad".  What do I mean by substitution of technology?  We're talking here about a customer adopting one product over another due to its technological superiority.

We've seen this effect countless time in consumer technology products - CDs superseding LPs and cassettes, Blu-ray (hoping to) supercede DVDs, etc, etc.

What I want to look at today is something that is so far removed from yesteryear that it's almost unrecognisable.  Unlike the media examples I quoted above this is an essential skill that we all need to.  The technology for achieving it has changed but the basic skill remains the same - I'm talking written communication.

I'm not referring here to commercial or business communication.  What I'm talking about is how would I use the written word to keep in touch with, say,  cousins in Scotland or a German pen pal (remember those?).

Let me step back in history to another life to describe how this was done in my youth.

A blast from the past, Parker Quink

I had the misfortune to spend my teenage years in a rather grim English boarding school.  Every week we had to write two letters, under supervision of a sadistic prefect.  These letters could be to anyone but it was expected that if you had parents, one of those letters would be addressed to them to tell them what a spiffing time you were having.  Letters were to be no less than 2 sheets of writing paper (both sides to be used) and all writing was to be neat, in ink (no biros) and grammatically sound.  If you made a mistake there was this wonderful new invention called 'Tippex' to rectify the error.  It didn't matter what you had to say or how little worth repeating had actually happened since last you wrote, 4 sides of paper for each letter, no excuses.  There was an hour set aside for this task so there was plenty of time to read, check and correct whatever scintillating news you managed to dream up.

Schooldays letter-writing nightmares

Fast forward to now and ask, would anyone use such a victorian approach to communicating with loved ones?  Most likely you would actually call them by phone, mobile phone or you might Skype them for both audio and video exchange of news.

Even if you do still write long hand to friends, you would most likely use email to make this happen.


Think about the advantages that the modern writer has over the reluctant schoolboy from yesteryear . . .

Post box

• I can type considerably faster than I can write
• Legibility is never an issue so long as I don't choose a weird font
• Formality has largely disappeared so the tone of the message is likely to be far more fun and less likely to send the recipient to sleep
• If I am as precious about grammar and spelling as my masters were, well hey, there's an excellent grammar and spelling checker built in to the email client (yes, I know that's cheating but I haven't bought a new dictionary for 15 years)
• I can write the same basic message once, then clone it with minimal change for as many recipients as I choose
• Email has much greater immediacy than pen and paper - tell them what's going on today, not what happened weeks ago
• Chances are that there's a photo, news story or video that's relevant to include in the email.  Send out a link to provide multimedia support for your words
• Stamps are getting expensive, and good writing paper ain't cheap either.  Eliminate these by sending an email for virtually no cost at all
• Use all that time you saved from not writing a formal letter to do something fun.

Maybe the biggest loser here is your dog, who no longer gets his morning walk to the post box, since you only use the 'snail mail' system once in a blue moon.

Fountain pen nib    

Personal communication through the written word has changed so dramatically over the last 15 or so years that it's virtually unrecognisable from what I remember.  The convenience of email, instant messaging, blogging and text messaging leaves traditional methods for dust.  Electronic mail surpassed letter writing many moons ago for most people living in a modern world.  The email technology itself is now somewhat long in the tooth but is still serving us very well indeed.

I don't miss writing long hand, especially under the nonsense rules of my schooldays.  There is though one thing I do miss - I loved to write with my Parker fountain pen.  I wonder if there's a font that replicates the look of pen strokes made with blue-black Quink?

Share it all around

Juha Saarinen (PC World regular) talks file sharing and insecure routers.

Is your router wide open to attack?  If you haven't locked it down you could end up acting as an unwilling participant in illegal file sharing or perhaps something even more sinister.

Linksys wireless router WRT54G

It appears that this issue with unsecured routers was discovered quite by accident.  Although the guy who found this backdoor hasn't done anything malicious, I'm sure that others will.   Have a read of what Juha says about this rather worrying weakness in a communications device that many of us now rely on   . . . .

Juha Saarinen on file sharing (NZ Herald)

Past its best?

I've often wondered when you basically have only one product in the game, whether this accusation could have some merit . . . . . .

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=10872941

Reintermediation

Fishpond sells online to New Zealanders

Recently I've looked at disintermediation in the retail industry.  I've examined the new online daily deal model and the web shopping sites like Mighty Ape and Fishpond, who do a great job of emulating overseas giants like Amazon.

This time I'm going to consider whether there are signs of retail going the other way - re-introducing intermediaries as part of the supply chain, or reintermediation.

I think this has happened quite prominently in the purchasing patterns for home computer equipment.  Let me explain . . .

PC Direct was an NZ success story

When computers took off in a big way here in New Zealand in the 1990s,  a burgeoning new retail sector was born.  There were many small, local computer shops that sprung up to custom-built desktop computers.  Such operations were pretty much classic retail operations, that bought products from various distributors, added value by assembling the computer and selling as a retailer to the general public.

The big players in this new industry though were the mail order companies that sold direct to the customer.  Some were overseas giants like Dell and Gateway but New Zealand created some very successful local companies like PC Direct and PC General.  These companies had impressive buying power and they negotiated cut-throat deals with wholesalers and distributors.  Sometimes their power was such that they became their own wholesalers and usurped the established players.

THE IBM PS/2 (circa 1987)

At the time it seemed that new, more powerful configurations of computers were arriving almost weekly.  This was the era of the Intel 486 (SX or DX), the early Pentiums and Pentium Pros, when a graphics card was measured in kilobytes and a CD-ROM drive was cutting edge.  Assembling the right mix of components took skill and it was very difficult for manufacturers to plan a configuration that would last for more than a few weeks before it changed again.

In this frantic atmosphere of constantly changing configurations the local assembler and the big mail-order computer builders were king.

Fast forward to the last few years and the market has changed.  Most people have little interest in what kind of computer chip or graphics card is in their sleek new laptop or tablet, as long as it's fast and spacious enough to cope with whatever they throw at it.  Let's face it, most users are perfectly happy with any of the configurations that the likes of Hewlett Packard or Samsung provide.  Notebooks and tablets are consumer items and people are happy to buy them from consumer stores.

Most people have long since stopped buying desktop computer equipment.  If I want a lnotebook, a netbook, a sleekbook or a tablet, I want to go and choose it from a shiny display at my neighbourhood retailer.  I want to be spoiled for choice and walk out of the store with a neat little box and a hefty discount.  I appreciate that buying a computer is no longer a scary experience where a confusing array of mismatched components causes a general protection fault (GPF), hardware crash or the dreaded blue screen of death.

Modern laptop retailing (PB Tech Ltd)

For those that want to bypass the retailer option there are plenty of online sellers of computer hardware, some of which have no bricks and mortar retail presence.  They may be able to undercut the pricing of the high street retailers in some segments of the market.  Indeed these guys are still the favourite places for people to buy components, such as optical drives, hard drives, graphics boards.  Consequently they attract a specific segment of the market - technically expert people rather than the regular consumer who will buy an already built device, usually through a high street retailer.

Having the high street retailer provide the millions of notebooks to the general public has removed a nightmare support structure that most assemblers just couldn't afford to provide.

This division between expert and regular user is far more pronounced than before.  Two sets of needs that are today satisfied by two sorts of technology supplier.  At one time, anyone who wanted a desktop computer was mercilessly drawn into understanding at least something about the components that make up the unit.  This is no longer necessary for the regular user because end-user devices are pre-packed plug-and-play.  Generally, only gamers and power users these days are interested in specific components.  Given that they are so finely aware of specifications and they are sourcing high-end specialist components, they are far more likely to be using dedicated suppliers rather than the high street chain.

The big manufacturers have solved those problems for me, have packaged awesome processing power as a sexy, consumer item and have brought back the appeal of the local retailer, who no longer needs to know that much in order to sell me a thoroughly competent piece of technology.

I've seen reintermediation of the retailer into the domestic computer hardware market and I think it's a really good thing.

Death of the middleman (Act 3)

Online shopping via smartphone

In my third article looking at disintermediation I examine the most famous of the Business 2 Customer (B2C) operations - the internet only shop.  Many have tried but few have lasted the distance.  One of the undisputed kings of the market is Amazon.  Amazon manages to play so many roles in the supply chain.  They are now so huge that they can perform the roles of wholesaler, distributor and retailer all at once.  They can even provide these services to thousands of internet shops that exist within the Amazon domain and use Amazon's massive infrastructure for running their business.

I'm a big fan of Amazon.  Although I've chosen to live at the bottom of the South Pacific in Wellington, New Zealand,  I like to do my shopping on the other side of the world.  Ah, the wonders of the modern age.  Take a look at one of my shopping encounters with this champion of the internet . . . .

• Are you a savvy online shopper?
• Do you expect, nay, demand a keen price on everything you buy?
• Are you prepared to spend considerable time researching the marketplace before you commit to buying?
• Do you feel a sense of pride when you finally make your purchase, knowing that you have done everything possible to secure the very best deal for the model you want?
• Do you approach this shopping minefield as a personal challenge of your tenacity to triumph over adversity?

If you answered yes to any or all of these questions, we share something of a common purpose.  I love the hunt for online bargains and I sometimes spend an alarming degree of time and effort on the silliest of things but I'm big and ugly enough to admit this.  Call me a product of the internet shopping age.

OK, maybe I do get obsessive about these things but I freely admit that I am happiest if I feel I have examined all the available information before I commit.  Sometimes this is straightforward - if only one or two suppliers can provide the goods then it's just a question of whether the price is right.  However, when there are many possible suppliers, that's going to take a bit longer to follow the research trail.  At this point many people give up and buy the first copy they can find but that is not me.  Oh no.

I'll illustrate this with a real-life case.  I'll call it Hunt the Wolverine.

X-Men Blu-Ray box set

I hadn't seen any of the X-Men movies and I thought it was about time I rectified that.  Sure, I could pick most of them up on weekly rental at the local DVD library or I could buy the individual parallel imported Zone 2 (UK/Europe) DVDs from the Warehouse for $10 each or less.  Mighty Ape could offer me the Zone 4 (NZ/Australia) DVDs for much the same price, if I wanted to pay some postage costs too.  They also had a DVD boxset of the four films, which was competitively priced but, here's the thing - the reviews all shouted this at me - buy the Blu-ray versions, they're so-oo much better.

Now the Blu-ray option introduced a whole new set of research challenges.  New Zealand, unfortunately, has not yet accepted Blu-ray as the way of the future.  I'd love to blame someone for this and frankly I don't know who is responsible - all I know is that it is taking way too long.  I'm guessing the movie studios are keeping their pricing too high, the distributors certainly are and the retailers are making a pretty poor effort at persuading customers to embrace Blu-ray.  For whatever reason, Blu-ray bargains in the local market are few and far between.  Generally for Blu-ray I need to look overseas.

Here's where the NZ shopper gets a bit of a break for a change.  Unlike the DVD zoning debacle where NZ ended up in a different zone to the UK, the movie industry (bless their cotton socks) did at least realise that they could sort some distribution/manufacture issues by including NZ/Australia into the European Blu-ray region.  Now don't get me started on the whole topic of zoning - at least with the better zoning for Blu-ray, I can buy my home zone from British and European retailers as well as local ones.  And with parallel importing rules as they are in NZ, I'm not even infringing on that score.

Top online shop - Amazon UK

Ask yourself though, are you ready to buy from overseas?  Well, this is something that clearly plenty of people are doing but it does scare others.  Let's assume that you are prepared to buy from a reputable giant like Amazon UK.  What should you consider?

• Will Amazon ship to me down here at the bottom of the world?  (The answer is not straightforward - certainly don't try buying computer games or software, but Blu-ray/DVD/CD is fine)
• What's the shipping going to cost me?  (Not shown until checkout.  Note freight on some books can be horrendous)
• How long can I wait?  (Probably takes about a week if it's in stock)
• What's the price in New Zealand dollars (not shown during the shopping process but broken down at checkout and payable in local NZ currency so you can avoid the bank conversion fees)
• What other costs are there (if you don't know how much you can spend before Customs will hit you with GST, you need to do some more research)
• Is the product going to work in my local market?  (Depends - and if it doesn't, that's your lookout)
• What if it's damaged or lost en route?  (Amazon are pretty good at sorting this out but you won't know that until it happens to you)
• Will the warranty be honoured if it goes wrong (this is an absolute minefield so I will only buy things that have a value that's not going to keep me awake at night if it fails)

Back to my story on my X-Men Blu-rays.  I finally found a box-set of all the movies at Amazon UK, which they supplied to me pre-Christmas in just 5 days for less than the cost of the DVD box-set offered on Mighty Ape, the cheapest NZ source.

I sat down to watch the first movie and 20 minutes in I knew that my Hunt the Wolverine mission had been worthwhile.  The picture and sound quality were spot-on and my sense of smugness for bagging a bargain was the icing on the cake.

Be a savvy online shopper (Wikihow tutorial)

Kiwis shop on their smartphones (Netguide)

Introduction to retail (Wikipedia)

Hope for paraplegics

An interesting piece of robotics technology that brings real hope for paraplegics . . . .

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/13/tech/innovation/original-ideas-exoskeleton/index.html

Smart phones

There is an incredible amount of technology in today's smartphones . . . .

Smartphone tech (CNN)

How much?

Saumsung S IV has RRP of $1149

Would you be comfortable paying $1149 for a phone?

Yes, I know it's top of the line, but really . . . . . .

Galaxy S IV NZ pricing

. . . . and some less than flattering views on how the technology in this new model gels . . . . . 

Samsung S IV tech

Home audio choice

ADAM Professional Audio (SX Series)

Interesting article in the NZ Herald, discussing consumer confusion around choosing home audio equipment for those high-end digital audio files.

Serving the music (NZ Herald)

There are so many ways to encode digital audio but what suits your average music fan?  Most people have neither the inclination nor the patience to understand the myriad options for this one or that one, nor the expertise to know whether their choice of audio system will do it justice or even play the chosen format.

Physical formats like CD removed that decision from the regular consumer - the frequency and bit rate was predetermined.  CD may not measure up the studio mastering quality now possible from some of today's high-end audio formats but it was good enough for most non-audiophile listeners.

Sometimes too much choice is not a good thing.

Death of the middleman (Act 2)

Noel Leeming has a great web shop     

Continuing my posts on how the web is changing the supply chain . . . last time I looked at the recent phenomenon of daily deals sites.  These web-only stores are certainly selling to the customer by removing the retailer and perhaps the distributor from the chain, a process referred to as disintermediation.

This time I 'll look at the websites of traditional stores and ask are these players actually removing any intermediaries at all?

A web presence is pretty much expected for just about any business in 2013 but for any operator who sells to the general public, it's an essential.

At the bare bones minimum,a web site should provide full details of where any bricks-and-mortar stores are located and how they can be contacted - phone and email as a starter.

However, any internet shopper who seeks out the website of a retailer and finds only this wireframe presence is going to be seriously underwhelmed and may well flick straight off to find a more engaged competitor site.  The internet shopper is a on a mission - to seek out new civilisations . . .  sorry, got a bit carried away there.  The internet shopper wants information fast and if he/she doesn't find it here, there's generally someone else on the net who can provide it.

(Soon to go) Bond and Bond

Some retailers understand that the web is now an essential shopping channel, particularly if their business is selling technology goods.  Others have yet to get the message unfortunately and I'm sure that this lack of market understanding must be hurting their business or at least limiting new sales opportunities.

I'll refer to a few local market examples to illustrate the point.  Noel Leeming (and the soon to be defunct Bond and Bond - two names, same owner, little point of difference) have invested heavily in building a full blown shopping website that features all of their high street merchandise and more besides.  Noel Leeming was the first national electronics retailer to jump onto the web and it shows.  This is a mature, fully featured web shop as good as any overseas site - easy to navigate, good product information, clear pricing, and internet shopping with delivery to your door via courier.

JB Hi-Fi is a recent arrival in NZ

Dick Smith Electronics offers much the same in capability - the New Zealand site is a clone of the Australian one but it's fully customised to support the local market.  Dick Smith is particularly good at offering daily and weekly specials that are offered only to the online shoppers, not to shoppers in the physical retail stores.  An added sweetener for the web shopper is free courier delivery on just about anything.  If you know what you want and don't need to actually see it first, the website is far more convenient than heading for the retail outlet.  JB H-Fi is an australian import that's made quite a splash with a few large stores and they have an impressive web presence.   All the specials they offer in store are replicated online and they offer free shipping too.   It's a tricky site to search but it has an impressive catalogue of goodies that may well appeal particularly to provincial people who don't have access to a physical store.  There are other high street giants that have also spent substantial time and money building strong web channels - The Warehouse, Warehouse Stationery - plus others with maybe a lower commitment but still some reasonable shopping capability, like LV Martin or its owner, Smiths City.

Aussie import Harvey Norman

Compare these fully featured web shopping sites with Harvey Norman.  Good ol' Harvey has fast established himself as a major player in the New Zealand electronics (and furniture) retail space since arriving here from across the ditch.  However, Harvey is very much a bricks and mortar operation, as is shown by the below par website.  OK, it's got some nice graphics and pretty pictures but visitors will soon find that it's not a fully-formed shopping site to replicate the diverse range of the retail stores.  There's some product here but not a lot.  Perhaps this is a deliberate decision.  After all Harvey Norman stores are run by owner operators so any commission from web sales is not going to be passed on to them.  This approach may also apply with other owner operators like the 100% stores, who have a frankly low-grade web presence.

Woolworths-owned Dick Smith

For the Noel Leeming and the Dick Smith type operators the web channel is not replacing their bricks and mortar operations but is instead bringing in much needed additional cash flow via the internet.  I've no idea whether their return on investment is paying dividends but as a keen buy I am certainly more drawn to these stores because they offer me good price and feature research opportunities, which may well translate into an actual purchase.

NZ stalwart The Warehouse

This shopping model, unlike the online line only operators like Fishpond or Mighty Ape, has not cut out the middleman.  Perhaps in some of these business it is the franchise owner who is selling direct to the public via the web channel, thus cutting out the franchisee who runs a retail outlet that is completely separate to the website, but generally the big New Zealand high street retailers appear to be running their own stores and the web site serves as an additional channel to the physical outlets.

I don't know if I'm a typical shopper or not but for what it's worth I am far more likely to spend my disposable income with retailers who have given me the pleasure of a great browsing experience than ones that left me disappointed at their lacklustre efforts.

Death of the middleman (Act 1)

Shortening the supply chain

Cutting out the middleman, bagging a bargain by moving closer to the source, disintermediation - pardon?  Yes, horrible term but perhaps some very good news for the consumer.

Traditionally us consumers are a fair way down the supply chain.  Typically we see suppliers who feed the manufacturers with raw materials.  Finished products then pass to a wholesaler who may on-sell to a network of distributors.  Retailers (who may or not also be the distributor) take the products and offer on their store shelves to the consumer.  Quite a lot of people get to put their margin on that product before you get to buy it.

So, the chance to cut some of those players out is quite attractive, especially if you are happy to break out of this normal supply chain in order to save some money.  Bid welcome to the Business to Consumer (B2C) model.  Sometimes this may require a bit of adjustment, some inconvenience but by honing your web surfing skills, the experience doesn't need to be onerous.

There are various ways this has developed and I may look at a few of the models over a number of posts.

Local success story, Off The Back

Probably the most in-your-face example of 'direct to customer' selling comes from the explosion of daily deal sites, like 1-day, Off The Back and Treatme.  These no-frills web sites have replaced the retail store (and the distributor) to bring you enticing deals, executed directly through a simple web based shopping basket and card payment process.  Delivery is swift and easy through nationwide courier services.

Cut out the middleman with FirstIn

Most of these sales are spur of the moment, impulse buys, so the goods offered are chosen carefully to satisfy this desire for instant gratification.   Kiwis appear to love this daily fix, as borne out by the rapid proliferation of these services.

The best ones offer excellent service and customer guarantees.  Personally, I've found them to be very accommodating when a product fails, with great after-sales services and a no-nonsense refund or replacement.  Easier actually than a bricks and mortar store maybe.

These new players must have sucked a fair amount of discretionary spending away from the traditional shopping mall or high street store.  They have some distinct advantages over the normal retailer in that they snare the potential customer with a totally different approach.  For a start, these offers land in your email box during the day when you are probably looking for a break from your daily slog.  Secondly, they create a sense of urgency.  Generally these offers are good for just one day and only then if there's sufficient stock.  A ever depleting gauge shouts out that stock is almost gone so make that decision before it's too late.  

They may also offer you things that you are not going to find in any retail store - a cut price housecleaning services, discounted meals at a neighbourhood restaurant,  a too-good-to-pass-up round of golf.  Some sites, like FirstIn, specialise in bringing in overseas refurbished or end of line brands that aren't even sold in the New Zealand marketplace.

Aggregator site, Dealshrimp

There are now so many outfits in the market for daily deals that services like Dealshrimp have sprung up to aggregate these multiple providers into a single tidy 'go to' portal.

Big online retailers like Mighty Ape and professional traders within the Trademe portal have also joined the rush to offer a selection of limited time deals.

Daily deals are definitely a product of the internet age.  The ability to blitz the nation with a deal that lasts just 24 hours could only have come from the presence of internet connected devices in most households and the public's appetite to act fast on a same day basis.  The speed with which this sales model has been accepted here is quite astonishing.  It appears that everyone likes a bargain and people are prepared to trust a company they may little or nothing about to come through on their promise.

Clearly this new B2C model has found favour in business circles with bricks and mortar retailer, The Warehouse, deciding in March 2013 to take a major stake in Torpedo7, operator of the most high profile deal site, 1-day.

The Warehouse takes $33m stake in Torpedo7

A modern sales success story if ever there was one.

Quick response unit

A QR (Quick Response) code

Do you know what a QR (Quick Response) code is?

'Err, not sure' is a likely answer from many people here in New Zealand  Ask a Korean or a Japanese visitor and the response is more likely to be 'are you kidding? Everyone knows about QR'.

Market penetration is patchy here in Godzone.  Now, if you were to show someone a QR code the response may well be 'Oh, that thing.  Yes, I've seen them but I don't know what they're for.'  Such is the poor take-up that this technology has had.  With other technologies coming along that do the same and much more besides,QR will need to get cracking if it's going to be a big hit here in NZ.

I think we can look at QR as an improvement on the bar code.  The pattern can store up to 7000 characters, so it's excellent for holding web links and comments, slogans, buzzwords, etc.  If you print a QR code on a poster or a tag, an educated smartphone user can scan it (using a special app) and be either transported to the supplied web link or have the secret message displayed on the screen.

Cracking the QR Code (Stuff article)

Clearly there are some barriers to adoption here in our market::

• Many people don't know what QR is
• Even if you know what QR can do, you may be less than excited about it
• Technologies like near field communication (NFC) are just around the corner and they will do the QR transportation gig, plus a lot more besides
• You need a scanner to participate in QR - that usually means a smartphone
• Some smartphones, especially older ones don't recognise QR consistently
• You need to install and open a special scanner app before you can read a QR code - that is way too much hassle for some people
• They've gained something a bad reputation for exploitation by bad people, who have been known to embed web links for some dodgy destinations.  Click one of these and you are likely to be put off the technology for life

Educating the public about QR

I understand that these codes were originally invented as a successor to the ubiquitous bar code and that make a lot of sense.  As well as providing a bar code ID these could hold all sorts of detailed information about the product, model, characteristics, etc.  A definite improvement, for sure.

What are there chances for widespread adoption here in NZ?  Well, based on the lukewarm responses and generally poor understanding, I've seen to date, I wouldn't give you great odds if I was a betting man.

Other technologies like QR

IKEA has augmented reality catalogue

One company that is exploiting this kind of technology without actually using QR is IKEA.  Their 2013 print catalogue contains  icons that, when scanned by your smartphone (running the IKEA app), will transport you online to view bonus videos, additional product information and promotional opportunities.

IKEA catalogue with augmented reality

Catalogue article and video (Gizmodo)

Fairfax added value technology

Fairfax media in Australia and New Zealand has been providing readers with a similar 'added value' experience in their newspaper print editions.  Scanning a photograph that bears the branded icon will take a smartphone user to additional online information about the topic.

Get smart (Fairfax)

Some local interest in QR

Major New Zealand player, The Warehouse,  is having a go at using QR.  Take a look at this advertisement, sent out recently to online subscribers . .  .

Red Alert is a series of online daily deals offered by the Warehouse in New Zealand

QR is a boon for real estate listings

Maybe I've been a bit unkind in saying that QR hasn't taken off in New Zealand.  I guess since I wrote this post I've become more attuned to spotting them.  Here's an excellent use for the technology - real estate agents are publishing QR codes alongside property listings.  A quick scan of the code with your smartphone and you can be transported to the agent's site for more detailed listing information, comparable properties and direct access to an  open2view portfolio that the vendor may be using.  A great example of QR in action.

Convergence on wheels

Asteroid in-car entertainment and navigation

Another shining example of how multiple technologies are converging into a single highly desirable consumer product.  This time it's the Android-powered Asteroid - basically a hybrid GPS, entertainment system accessed via a tablet type interface.

The Parrot Asteroid brings web streaming services like Spotify direct from your car dashboard.

Imagine if such a device had appeared a few years ago.  What would we have made of it?  I think the reason that we accept these multi-function devices so readily today is that we are already acquainted with what purpose each application serves, since we've seen them before in dedicated, standalone devices.  Armed with the prior knowledge we can accept this innovative forward step without too much hesitation.

The 2011 incarnation was less exciting

That's an important factor in understanding why such technology can march on into the welcoming grasp of tech-hungry consumers.  Once we would have been suspicious when confronted with new technology but now we happily embrace it.  I guess it helps that the market price is generally reasonable but it's really our eagerness to have our portable always on, net-connected gadgets that makes this kind of accelerated adoption a reality.

See the review for more information . . .

Asteroid (NZ Herald)

Parrot Asteroid article (South Africa)

How long to ubiquity?

How quickly can a product move from niche to ubiquity?

Well, I guess that depends just how much society craves that product and how quickly industry can ramp up to supplying the huge demand.

We're talking here about diffusion of innovation - why and how quickly a product gains widespread acceptance.

Telephone diffusion in the US

The telephone is clearly a technology that is highly diffused.  Everyone has a telephone (or did have before it became possible to get by without a fixed line) but it's not something that happened overnight.  Economic hard times interrupted diffusion of the telephone in the US - the depression years actually saw a decrease in the percentage of households that had a phone installed.  Take a look at the graphic (opposite) to see the path to general acceptance that the telephone followed.  It took many years to reach the 90% penetration of the market it held by 1960.

Foot to the floor for the smartphone

Fast forward to the present day and look at the roller coaster ride for the smartphone.  Actually, roller coaster seems like the wrong analogy.  It's more like a drag race because, as soon as it got going, it just accelerated without slowing for any corners.

How did the smartphone become a runaway success in such a short time?  How does this differ from the fortunes of its great-grandparent, the original telephone?

Well, for me there are a whole lot of differences here.

The smartphone is actually a very sophisticated convergence of several very desirable technologies.  Most of them had been available in some other form before they were packaged together in a smartphone.  First of all there are the mobile phone features - the ability to make calls. send/receive SMS messages, check voicemail, etc.  This is what we've been doing for years with our basic Nokia type cell phones.  Everybody needed one but there wasn't anything very exciting going on there.

Handheld GPS device

Then there's the GPS functionality.  People have Satnav devices in their cars because nobody likes getting lost and they're a lot easier than reading a road map or (if you male) asking for directions.   Some people even went out and bought dedicated GPS devices for geocaching or other fun orienteering type excursions.

In-car Satellite Navigation

Hmm, all very useful but not enough to push most people's buttons.  So what is there about a smartphone that makes it special?  Well, I've covered that topic in a previous post and I have to say I'm staggered by what functions are actually packed into a smartphone.  Games, full web browsing through wi-fi or 3G/4G, productivity tools, video camera, and so on.  All made possible through a lovely touch screen interface.  Watch those lovely graphics woosh by as you lovingly caress that screen.

It doesn't really matter whether you splash out on an Apple iPhone or a high end Samsung or whether you join the mainstream and choose from one of the many cheap but capable Android phones.  They all put much more power in your pocket than anything that's gone before.   The functionality you get per dollar is quite astounding.

Much of the population doesn't even use a fraction of the technology available in their smartphones.  No matter, it's there if and when you need it.

Smartphone manufacturers moved very quickly to assemble these feature-rich devices.  I don't know if I missed something but one minute phones were, err, phones, then next minute they were these highly specified pocket wonders.  Convergence of a group of technologies (all the clever web stuff, sophisticated games, high quality video, GPS enabled applications) all seemed to happen almost overnight.

That level and speed of convergence is unprecedented.  Talk about speeding up the maturity cycle.

Shiny smartphones

The smartphone very quickly became a desirable object.  Fortunately for us it is also very affordable (if you don't need an Apple or you don't demand the top of the line Android).  Apple, together with their Korean and Chinese Android competitors, have cranked up their production lines to supply the world with as many units as they can devour.  That's a key point for this rapid diffusion -availability.

Choice is also quite overwhelming.  Just look at the Samsung Galaxy range for example - a model for every taste and budget.

Maybe not a particularly in-depth analysis, I realise, but some pretty compelling reasons why the smartphone has won our hearts and wallets so quickly:

• It has an incredible amount of functionality
• It's intuitive so virtually anyone can operate one without too much frustration
• It's the logical successor to your aging cellphone
• It's affordable and there's a model to suit every taste and budget
• It's available at a shop near you
• It's fast becoming everyone's favourite way to get online

When you look at it that way, is it really that surprising that it's a runaway success story?

More on diffusion of technology theory here . . .
Everett Rogers on diffusion of innovation

and here . . .
Roger Clarke on diffusion of innovation